319
FXUS62 KMLB 130712
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH THE AREA
TODAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY WATERS TODAY. A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY...CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN U.S., WHICH
WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
AND BECOME BREEZY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. HOWEVER, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS AT TIMES UP TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS LOOK TO NOT BE AS BREEZY
SUNDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TROUGH DIGGING INTO FLORIDA ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. PW VALUES FALL TO 1.4-1.7" TODAY AND 1.3-1.5" ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
40-50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT 60 PERCENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST, AND THEN LOWER TO 30-50 PERCENT SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 70S, BUT
MAY SEE SOME UPPER 60S NORTHWEST OF I-4.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE WAVE RUNUP TO NEAR THE DUNE LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALSO CONTINUES TODAY AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT, BUT EXACT
EVOLUTION, POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE STILL DIFFERS. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GFS IS STILL FARTHER EAST WITH THIS LOW THAN THE
ECMWF. HOWEVER, THE ECWMF IS NOT AS CLOSE WITH THIS LOW TO THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AS IT WAS SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO, SO A TIGHTENING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS LESS LIKELY, AND
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NO MORE THAN
10-15 MPH MONDAY-TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AROUND 30-40 PERCENT MONDAY AND 20-30 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, LOW EAST OF THE AREA
EITHER WEAKENS OR LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CUTOFF LOW ALOFT ALSO
TRANSITIONS N/NE. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE E/SE
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING UP TO 50-70 PERCENT BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF BREVARD
COUNTY TODAY. NORTH OF THE CAPE, N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS, WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS ARE
FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BREVARD COUNTY TODAY FOR BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6
FEET.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BREVARD COUNTY AND ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST, WITH
SEAS 3-5 FEET. N/NE WINDS DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS MAY STILL REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS, WITH LINGERING SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET NORTH OF THE CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...N/NE WINDS CONTINUE TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF FLORIDA, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., AND POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS SUNDAY AS WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE BACK TO 15-20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/NE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3-5 FEET SUNDAY FALL TO 3-4
FEET MONDAY, BUT THEN BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE TEMPOS, BUT WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NE
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NE AT
10-15 KT GUSTING 20-25 KT BY SATURDAY MID-MORNING. SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TEMPOS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 72 84 72 / 50 40 50 30
MCO 87 71 87 71 / 40 20 40 10
MLB 86 73 86 73 / 50 30 40 30
VRB 87 72 88 72 / 50 30 40 20
LEE 86 70 86 69 / 30 10 30 10
SFB 86 71 86 71 / 40 20 50 20
ORL 86 71 86 72 / 40 20 40 10
FPR 87 70 88 71 / 60 30 40 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ550-570.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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