771
FXUS62 KMLB 140617
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY WATERS TONIGHT. A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN US WILL SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA, GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SURFACE
LOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF
THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD (LOOKS LIKE THE ECM HAD THE TIMING BUT THE
GFS HAD THE LOCATION) ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH OF
US IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
PRODUCING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST, AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
FURTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE ORLANDO METRO, AND GRADUALLY DECREASING
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN SEEN AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT TO 5-10 MPH FROM THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EASE AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST,
RESULTING IN MORE MODERATE WINDS SUNDAY, THOUGH BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BETWEEN THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
STOUT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY, DRY AIR ABOVE IS KILLING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION, AND ISOLATED TO AT BEST SCATTERED LOW-TOP SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS BUT THE ODDS ARE NOT IN FAVOR. ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS,
WHICH COULD GET HUNG UP ON THE COAST LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE M-U80S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH ALOFT
HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP. THE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP GRADUALLY DEEPEN
THE SURFACE LOW AS BOTH THESE FEATURES DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THERE
IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES, BUT GIVEN HOW FAR EAST THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED,
CONFIDENCE IS NOW VERY HIGH WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIER AIR
FILTERING FROM THE NORTH, KEEPING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN.
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE THE QUIETEST WEATHER WE'VE SEEN
IN A LITTLE WHILE (RELATIVELY SPEAKING), WITH RAIN CHANCES 30-40
PERCENT MONDAY AND 20-30 PERCENT TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW EAST OF THE AREA EITHER WEAKENS OR LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT ALSO TRANSITIONS N/NE. LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE E/SE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND
ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TO GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING UP TO 50-70 PERCENT BY THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT (UPDATED PREVIOUS)...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VOLUSIA ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NNE-NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS (30 KT GUSTS) AND SEAS AROUND 7 FT. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST 4 AM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS AS WELL. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS, ALSO.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...N/NE WINDS
CONTINUE TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD GRADUALLY DEEPENS WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING
N/NW. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS SUNDAY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
BACK TO 15-20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/NE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3-5 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA,
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC, WITH SOME ACTIVITY PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST.
THESE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z ON SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER CONVECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH VCSH FROM MCO
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS MAY DEVELOP,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MID-MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM MLB NORTHWARD. SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 71 85 71 / 50 20 30 10
MCO 87 70 89 71 / 40 10 30 10
MLB 86 73 87 74 / 40 20 30 20
VRB 88 71 89 73 / 30 20 30 20
LEE 86 68 89 70 / 30 10 20 0
SFB 86 70 88 70 / 40 10 30 10
ORL 86 71 89 72 / 40 10 30 10
FPR 88 70 89 72 / 30 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ550-570.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WATSON
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