918
FXUS62 KMLB 141902
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DEPART WESTWARD BY THE EVENING, BUT ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, AND THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- FINALLY SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
TO START THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...PRETTY QUIET ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT THIS HOUR. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE TIGHTER SIDE
OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS, PRODUCING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER LAND ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR, AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. VERY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH GOES SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS RINGING IN AS LOW AS 1.2-1.3" (BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY AND APPROACHING THE
10TH PERCENTILE), AND UP TO AROUND 1.5" (CLOSE TO THE 25TH
PERCENTILE) IN A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE EXTENDING
INLAND FROM VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES, MOSTLY IN THE LOW-
LEVELS, THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE CROPPED
UP, MAINLY IN THE PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE BUT A FEW ARE BEATING
THE ODDS IN THE DRIER AIR, ALL ALONG A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. LOOKING LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AS IT
DEPARTS WESTWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE FROM
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE, BUT EVEN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE
ODDS ARE BECOMING INCREASING UNFAVORABLE. RAIN CHANCES 20-40% THIS
AFTERNOON START TO DECREASE AFTER 4 PM, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND BY 8 PM, AND A LINGERING 20% CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LIGHTNING STORM, BUT THE 15Z XMR SOUNDING DOES NOT PAINT A
FAVORABLE PICTURE AS VERY DRY AIR (RH LESS THAN 25%) ABOVE 600MB
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO SURVIVE THIS VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCT GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH,
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE M-U80S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...FINALLY SOME RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A CUTOFF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTH, IN THE BASE OF A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING,
STRENGTHENING THE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST, WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ONSHORE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM (BAROCLINIC/NON-TROPICAL
STRUCTURE), IT REMAINS OUT OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY, THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA,
KEEPING THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH SUPPRESSED, AND DROPPING RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMAL AND TO
THE LOWEST THEY'VE BEEN IN A WHILE. ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS DROP AS
LOW AS 1.1" (LESS THAN 10TH PERCENTILE AND APPROACHING DAILY
MINIMUMS) NORTH OF I-4, TO AROUND 1.2-1.4" (AROUND 10TH
PERCENTILE) FURTHER SOUTH, AND EVEN A POTENTIAL NARROW BAND OF
HIGHER MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 1.6" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS
CLOSER TO 25TH PERCENTILE THAN DAILY MEAN WHICH IS 1.8". THE ONLY
THING KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ALIVE IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WINDS NORTHEASTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. A LINGERING EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS COULD ALSO SUPPORT A SHOWERS
OR TWO. POPS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT MORE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
NOW JUST 20% FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY, UP TO AROUND 30% DOWN
SOUTH, AND LESS THAN 20% WELL NORTH OF I-4. ON TUESDAY, START TO
SEE HINTS OF THE COMING EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING MUCH HIGHER
MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA AS THIS FLOW BEGINS TO ARRIVE AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAINS GENERALLY 20-30%,
AND LESS THAN 20% UP NORTH. WINDS MUCH MORE MILD THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS, INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH INLAND AND TO AROUND 10 MPH ALONG
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M-U80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE
U60-L70S.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MID/UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS N/NE AND WEAKENS INTO MIDWEEK, THEN GETS
PICKED UP BY A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, E/SE FLOW
DRAGGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID
TO LATE WEEK WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, RISING TO 50-70% BY LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO
LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WHICH NOW HAS A HIGH (70%) CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7-DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT, IF ANY IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IS A
GOOD REMINDER FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO STAY INFORMED AS WE
ARE WELL INTO THE HISTORICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF VOLUSIA, AND IN THE GULF
STREAM ALONG THE WHOLE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING LOCAL WINDS
TO EVENTUALLY EASE LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN, SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS,
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 25 KTS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 4-6 FT WILL PERIODICALLY BUILD TO 7 FT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
ARRIVES AT THE LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 5 PM, AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 8 PM, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER THESE ADVISORIES EXPIRE. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS THAT LAST 24 HOURS, AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY SHOULD SEAS OVER-PERFORM
AGAIN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 10-15 KTS, OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE SPACE
COAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 3-5 FT, EXCEPT IN
THE GULF STREAM AS SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 6FT AT TIMES AS THE SWELL
REACHES THOSE SEGMENTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO REACH
AROUND 7 FT AT TIMES HERE AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. ACROSS THE BOARD WINDS EASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO 5-10 KTS
BY EARLY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OFFSHORE OF THE
VOLUSIA AND SPACE COASTS IN THE STRONGER FLOW.
MONDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...N/NE WINDS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/NE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. IN THE
GULF STREAM SEAS UP TO 6 FT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY FROM A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL THEN SUBSIDE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SEAS FORECAST IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC SEAS 3-5 FEET
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 3-4 FEET INTO
MIDWEEK. LOWER THAN NORMAL SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FORECAST
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF SHRA TODAY. VCSH
INCLUDED FOR INTERIOR SITES (INCLUDING MCO) THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY TEMPOS OR PREVAILING SHRA. THEN, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AREA- WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILARLY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHRA MONDAY, WITH SOME POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KTS ALONG THE COAST
NEAR DAB AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS 10-15 KTS
OR LESS, SLACKENING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 85 70 85 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 69 89 70 90 / 10 20 10 20
MLB 72 87 74 87 / 20 20 10 20
VRB 71 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 68 89 69 88 / 10 10 0 10
SFB 69 88 69 88 / 10 20 10 20
ORL 70 89 71 89 / 10 20 10 20
FPR 70 88 71 87 / 10 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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