235
FXUS62 KMLB 160534
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
134 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY, ENTERING THE WATER IS DISCOURAGED
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY, COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK; LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHERE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN ARE FORECAST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY IS NOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THIS
MORNING'S 10Z XMR SOUNDING (PWAT AROUND 1.5"). THIS HAS CONTINUED
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE
CUMULUS FIELD ONLY JUST RECENTLY SHOWING ANY NOTABLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF MELBOURNE AS OF AROUND 2 PM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL, WITH
POPS 20-30%. TO THE NORTH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB
SHOULD LIMIT MOST STORMS.
CAMS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER OKEECHOBEE AND FAR
SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEN, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AREA-WIDE, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
POPS AROUND 20% OR LESS. CONTINUED DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF I-4. ELSEWHERE, MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER TO MID-70S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY, AS THE BOUNDARY AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (20-35%) AND WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF ORLANDO. AREAS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL, THOUGH THOSE THAT
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH, LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE A MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF MELBOURNE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90 ARE FORECAST, WITH INCREASINGLY ONSHORE
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPS TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY, AS THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MERGES WITH A TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE CONTINUED SURFACE LOW IN THAT AREA IS
THEN FORECAST TO HELP REESTABLISH/LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO LATE WEEK, AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. PWATS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR 2" BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 LOOK TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY
(~1.5-1.7"). THIS WILL MAKE FOR QUITE THE GRADIENT OF POPS, WITH
50-60% FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND 20-40% OR
LESS FROM AROUND MELBOURNE NORTHWARD. TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PROVIDE RELIEF TO CONTINUED D0-D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 MPH AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-80S FROM AROUND
MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
THURSDAY-MONDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OPENS INTO A
TROUGH, BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD EACH DAY, WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS PWATS SURGE TO 2+" FROM NEAR MELBOURNE
SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN BE ALONG AND
INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WHILE SOME DROUGHT RELIEF IS
WELCOME, TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST A MOISTURE GRADIENT PERSISTING OVER THE
AREA. SO, WHILE PWATS INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THEY REMAIN LESS THAN THE SOGGY PWATS TO THE SOUTH. THUS,
A POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH 60-70% POPS EACH DAY
SOUTH OF MELBOURNE AND 30-50% TO THE NORTH. KEEP IN MIND THAT
WHERE THIS GRADIENT SETS UP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON PLACEMENT. ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY EASTERLY INTO MID TO LATE WEEK AND REMAIN
AROUND 10-12 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS THEN INCREASE TO 10-15
KTS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER
THE GULF STREAM WATERS WILL IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY, AS SEAS UP TO 6
FT DIMINISH. THEN, SEAS 3-5FT LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE GULF
STREAM AND SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGS HIGHER RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AROUND 20-40%, MAINLY NEAR TO
SOUTH OF ORLANDO. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT KMCO/KISM FROM 20Z-02Z AND
VCTS FROM 19-23Z FROM KMLB TO KSUA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME, BUT ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AROUND 5-6 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME
E/NE UP TO 8-11 KNOTS BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 85 72 86 73 / 10 0 10 20
MCO 89 72 89 73 / 20 10 30 20
MLB 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 40 40
VRB 87 75 86 75 / 30 30 50 50
LEE 88 71 89 72 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 88 71 88 73 / 10 10 20 20
ORL 89 72 89 73 / 20 10 20 20
FPR 87 74 86 74 / 30 30 50 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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