980
FNUS72 KMLB 160833
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR AHRES TREATMENT BURN TF 4518...ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGMENT DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
433 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED AT THE BURN SITE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW (30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE TO AROUND 40
PERCENT. WHILE OVERALL LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED DUE
TO DRIER AIR ALOFT, ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON (AROUND 2 PM) BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. NO MIN RH CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. SMOKE DISPERSION
VALUES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 39.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 2 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........17 17 21 27 37 39 40 38 42 50
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 20
TEMP............73 77 81 83 86 86 86 86 87 84
RH..............95 84 75 71 66 64 64 64 63 68
20 FT WIND DIR..N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 9 10 10 12 12 14 15 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.9 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10
DISPERSION IDX..2 7 18 29 30 34 37 40 38 37
LVORI...........7 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, THEN GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....25 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 6 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........47 43 33 32
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 10 10 10
TEMP............83 77 76 75
RH..............69 82 84 88
20 FT WIND......NE 10G15 NE 7G12 NE 6G9 E 5G8
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 E 8 NE 7 E 6
DISPERSION IDX..25 6 3 3
LVORI...........3 4 5 6
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 35.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
SKY (%).........33 48 72
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 40
TEMP............73 81 85
RH..............92 78 66
20 FT WIND......NE 5G8 NE 7G10 E 10G15
MIX HGT (FT)....400 2200 3600
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 9 E 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 22 35
LVORI...........6 3 3
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...JONNY BAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2521981.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/16/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JABAKER@SJRWMD.COM
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