780
FNUS72 KMLB 161104
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE MONROE CONSERVATION AREA...SJRWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
704 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES LIMITED AT THE BURN SITE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS A VERY LOW (10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE
(20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE OVERALL LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT, ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
MPH WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON (AROUND 2 PM) BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. NO MIN RH
CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GOOD
TODAY AND VERY GOOD ON WEDNESDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO
10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 49.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........11 15 19 22 30 32 38 49 53 49 43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............70 71 75 80 83 85 86 86 86 86 84
RH..............93 94 84 72 66 61 57 56 56 56 61
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 14 16 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 9 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 5 14 26 31 37 40 47 50 50
LVORI...........7 7 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....40 DECREASING TO 6.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........47 42 47 50 44 39 29 28 25 23 28 28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............83 81 77 76 75 74 74 73 73 72 72 72
RH..............63 65 76 78 81 84 84 87 86 88 87 86
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 15 13 12 9 8 7 7 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..40 19 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 13 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 53
DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........27 23 25 31 39 46 52 59 65 67 69 71
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20
TEMP............72 72 73 76 80 84 85 85 86 85 85 84
RH..............89 89 87 80 72 63 60 57 54 55 57 59
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 14 15 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6 2.8 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 2 13 25 38 43 50 56 55 56 40
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...KATRINA NOLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522017.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/16/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KNOLAND@SJRWMD.COM
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