493
FNUS72 KMLB 170825
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUCK LAKE RX...SJRWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AT THE BURN
SITE. THERE IS A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON, THERE REMAINS
A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH TODAY WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. NO MIN RH CONCERNS.
SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR TODAY.
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS AT THE
BURN SITE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. NO MIN RH CONCERNS. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES
WILL BE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD ON THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 27.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........61 65 67 69 78 77 80 82 87
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 30 40 50 40 20 20
TEMP............78 82 84 83 83 83 84 82 81
RH..............85 76 71 72 72 71 71 74 76
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..9 19 25 26 29 28 27 25 26
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 3 TO
6 MPH OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....17 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........85 79 80 79 74 72 66 56 57 54 53 57
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC SCH CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC SCH CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 30 30 30 30 20 30 20 30 30
TEMP............80 78 77 75 75 75 74 73 73 73 73 73
RH..............78 84 86 91 91 91 95 96 96 94 94 94
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 5 5 5 3 5 5 3 5 6
DISPERSION IDX..21 12 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........3 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 41.
LVORI...............7 INCREASING TO 8 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 5 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 3 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57 58 58 45 42 40 45 50 56 55 54 53
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............73 73 74 78 81 83 83 84 84 84 83 82
RH..............94 95 96 86 79 74 73 72 70 71 72 74
20 FT WIND DIR..E E NE NE E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 17 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..4 3 4 10 19 29 36 42 44 42 39 37
LVORI...........6 7 8 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...COLIN RIDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522063.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/17/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CJRIDER@SJRWMD.COM
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