031
FNUS72 KMLB 171201
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR TM-19 PILE...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
801 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT NEAR THE BURN
SITE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE BUILDS NORTHWARD. STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE BURN SITE, AND ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY. EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW,
GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR TO GENERALLY
GOOD AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST NEAR THE BURN
SITE, WITH EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 37.
LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........55 54 56 52 56 64 63 67 76 80
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10
TEMP............78 79 81 82 82 82 82 83 82 81
RH..............77 75 71 69 68 67 69 67 69 72
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE NE NE E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 8 8 9 9 12 12 12 12
DISPERSION IDX..11 19 27 30 30 33 35 34 37 33
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 5.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........82 75 64 59 51 53
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 10 20 20 20
TEMP............82 79 79 77 77 76
RH..............69 75 76 81 82 85
20 FT WIND......E 10 E 8 E 7 E 7 SE 6 E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12 10 9 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 1200 700 700 600 700
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 E 8 E 8 E 8 SE 6 E 8
DISPERSION IDX..29 7 7 6 5 5
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 5 5
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING EAST 5 TO 14 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 14 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 44.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........53 50 29 26 33 37
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 30 30
TEMP............76 76 80 81 82 81
RH..............85 85 77 75 73 74
20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5 NE 7 E 10 E 14 E 14
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 9 14 16 17
MIX HGT (FT)....600 800 2000 2700 3000 2700
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 5 E 7 E 9 E 13 E 14
DISPERSION IDX..4 5 19 31 40 44
LVORI...........5 5 3 3 3 3
FORECASTER...TOLLEFSEN
REQUESTED BY...VICTORIA MARSHALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522083.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/17/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VICTORIA.MARSHALL@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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