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WTUS82 KMLB 271601
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FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-272230-
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL AL092025
1201 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL INDIAN
RIVER, COASTAL MARTIN, COASTAL SAINT LUCIE, COASTAL VOLUSIA,
MAINLAND NORTHERN BREVARD, MAINLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD, NORTHERN
BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS, AND SOUTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL INDIAN RIVER,
COASTAL MARTIN, COASTAL SAINT LUCIE, COASTAL VOLUSIA, MAINLAND
NORTHERN BREVARD, MAINLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD, NORTHERN BREVARD
BARRIER ISLANDS, AND SOUTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL OR ABOUT
440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STUART FL
- 22.0N 76.2W
- STORM INTENSITY 35 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AT 11 AM, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
6 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS IT PARALLELS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA.
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE MOVES NORTHWARD, OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SUNDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THROUGH TUESDAY, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS OF RAIN SET UP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
AS IT PARALLELS THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE, THE WIND FIELD IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY EXPAND. TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE,
ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COAST, PENDING FUTURE TRACK ADJUSTMENTS.
AS A RESULT, TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA, BREVARD, INDIAN RIVER, SAINT LUCIE, AND MARTIN
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
AT THE COAST, BATTERING SURF FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS FORECAST WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET. BEACH EROSION IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS WAVES RUN UP TO THE DUNE LINE OR SEA WALLS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COAST ON MONDAY.
WINDS GRADUALLY TURN OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY, BUT LONG-PERIOD SWELLS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND DISTANT HURRICANE HUMBERTO LOOK TO PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-DURATION BEACH AND DUNE EROSION, ALONG WITH HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS, THROUGH LATE WEEK.
FOR LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH, DO NOT LET YOUR
GUARD DOWN. SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, WHILE AN
EASTWARD SHIFT WOULD DECREASE THIS POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
TRACK, SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. NOW IS THE TIME TO
ENSURE YOUR HURRICANE SUPPLY KIT IS STOCKED AND YOUR SAFETY PLAN IS IN
PLACE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE, FLORIDA.
--------------------
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN OR
HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES
AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* SURGE:
PREPARE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN
THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PREPARE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN
AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY
VULNERABLE SPOTS. A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER
OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME
NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE
CLOSURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN AND EMERGENCY SUPPLIES
KIT AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR FAMILY AND SECURE YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS.
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
WHEN SECURING YOUR PROPERTY, OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE CONCLUDED
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR FLOODING CAN CAUSE CERTAIN PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES TO BECOME UNSAFE.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE FL AROUND 6 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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