934  
FXUS62 KMLB 111817  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
217 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
- COASTAL FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND A HIGH RISK OF  
RIP CURRENTS ALL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.  
ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!  
 
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST  
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
FORECAST LOCALLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF OF THE EAST  
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH-  
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AIDED BY A  
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LOW WILL LEAD TO  
BREEZY CONDITIONS LOCALLY, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO  
15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
ALONG VOLUSIA COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN NOTICED WRAPPING AROUND  
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW, VISUALLY DEPICTED ON THE GOES19  
TOTAL PWAT VIEWER. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES  
AREAWIDE TODAY, WITH CURRENT POPS GENERALLY SITTING BETWEEN  
30-50%. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM  
DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY DUE TO LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY (MUCAPE LESS  
THAN 1000 J/KG), BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS  
TO 45 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO  
DEVELOP. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER  
AND STORM ACTIVITY, AND AREAS THAT ARE WELL SATURATED FROM THE  
PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED  
MINOR FLOODING. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT  
FRONT MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, ACTIVITY IS  
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS  
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
A SNEAK PEAK AT FALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE WEATHER, A NUMBER OF COASTAL HAZARDS REMAIN IN  
EFFECT FOR THE AREA. COASTAL FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, MINOR TO  
MODERATE BEACH EROSION, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE ALL  
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TODAY. HEADING TO THE BEACH IS STRONGLY  
DISCOURAGED, AND ENTERING THE OCEAN IS DISCOURAGED EVEN MORE DUE  
TO THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.  
 
SUNDAY-FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE LOW  
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY  
FROM FLORIDA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE  
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS  
FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK. LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT PAIRED WITH LOWER PWATS  
MEAN THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY  
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED TO  
REMAIN BELOW 20% THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, VEERING  
TO OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO A  
SLIGHT RETURN OF MOISTURE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED  
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF  
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS POINT, AND AGAIN, RAIN CHANCES  
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20%. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO  
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. LATE NEXT WEEK, LOWS MAY ONLY  
FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
COASTAL HAZARDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY,  
PARTICULARLY COASTAL FLOODING AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.  
EXTENSIONS IN TIME OF THESE HAZARDS MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW  
TIDAL GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. RESIDENTS AND  
VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST AND  
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS  
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, SUBSIDING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY.  
SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS, WITH THE HIGHER SEAS FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS OF  
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH VARIOUS ZONES SLOWLY DROPPING AS  
SEAS SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY, BOATING CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH NORTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 3 TO  
6 FEET. SOME BUILDING TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RANGE BETWEEN 30-50% TODAY DUE TO THE LOW  
PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE  
AREA BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH RAIN CHANCES FALLING GENERALLY TO  
20% AND LESS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL  
FLOW FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. BREEZY/GUSTY  
NW-N WIND FLOW ALSO BRINGING FAST-MOVING SHRA ACROSS MANY  
TERMINALS ESP NEAR THE COAST. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH  
LATE AFTN GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BUT MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  
NORTH WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS, INCLUDING  
MCO, BACKING MORE NW ON SUNDAY WITH LESS GUSTINESS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 65 80 64 82 / 30 10 10 10  
MCO 65 83 65 85 / 10 10 0 10  
MLB 68 82 67 83 / 20 10 0 10  
VRB 68 83 66 84 / 20 10 0 0  
LEE 63 82 63 84 / 10 0 0 0  
SFB 65 82 64 85 / 10 10 0 10  
ORL 65 82 65 84 / 10 10 0 10  
FPR 67 84 66 84 / 20 10 0 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ141.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
FLZ141-347-447.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ154-159-164-  
647-747.  
 
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ550-570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ550.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ552.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ555.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ575.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN  
AVIATION...KELLY  
 
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