902  
FXUS62 KMLB 111915  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
315 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
- WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST  
THIS AFTERNOON, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8  
PM. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA.  
 
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS WHERE A GALE WARNING  
HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 4 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
- COASTAL FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND A HIGH RISK OF  
RIP CURRENTS ALL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.  
ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED ON OUR COAST  
YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE  
CENTER WELL EAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND SAVANNAH, AND CONTINUES TO  
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE  
AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENDED UP TIGHTENING ENOUGH FOR  
NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE ORLANDO METRO AREA)  
AND BREVARD COAST, AND HIGHER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND ATLANTIC  
WATERS AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA THROUGH 8 PM,  
PRIMARILY FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS, BUT MAINLAND AREAS CAN AND HAVE  
SEEN WINDS OCCASIONALLY SURGE AS WELL. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THE VOLUSIA ATLANTIC WATER FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 34 KTS  
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS TAPER OFF FARTHER SOUTH DOWN  
TO 5-10 MPH OR SO FROM THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE. WINDS  
EASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND  
THE FRONT, BUT MOST OF THIS IS ABOVE 700MB, AND BELOW HIGH  
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED ONSHORE, KEEPING SKIES VERY CLOUDY  
AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS, WITH THE HIGHEST  
CHANCES (30-40%) ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY (20-30%)  
INLAND. AS FAR AS DEEP CONVECTION GOES, IF THE DRY AIR ALOFT  
WASN'T ENOUGH OF A HURDLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION HAS  
DEVELOPED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB, LIKELY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER  
INHIBITING MIXING, KNOCKING INSTABILITY DOWN TO LESS THAN 1,000  
J/KG MUCAPE EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND A COUPLE POCKETS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE'S SOME DAYTIME HEATING, WHICH ONLY  
TOP OUT AROUND 1,500 J/KG MUCAPE. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A  
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND  
GUSTS TO 45 MPH, BUT THE ODDS ARE HIGHLY AGAINST. AFTERNOON HIGHS  
TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S BETWEEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN.  
 
SUNDAY-MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT COULD BECOME A BIT  
MESSY AS A SMALL BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW SWINGING FROM THE  
GREAT LAKE TO NEW ENGLAND MERGES WITH THE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL LOW  
DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, EVOLVING IN TO A DEEP, SHARP TROUGH  
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. ALL MODELS HAVE  
BEEN STRICKEN WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AT  
THE SURFACE (AND NONE AGREEING WHERE), WHICH IS PROBABLY MORE  
MODEL BEHAVIOR THAN ANYTHING, BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THE SURFACE  
LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME LARGE AND ELONGATED. THERE HAS BEEN A  
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A SURFACE TROUGH AND PLUME OF  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE TO SWING BACK  
DOWN TOWARDS FLORIDA ALMOST LIKE A BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT HOW STRONG  
IT BECOMES AND HOW FAR IT MAKES IT IS UNCERTAIN. ULTIMATELY THE  
GREATEST IMPACT IS MAYBE AN UPTICK IN WINDS, WHICH SHOULD BE  
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND MAYBE A  
FEW SPRINKLES AND BIT OF HUMIDITY ON WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE SOME  
FINALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ELSE, TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE  
60S, AND MUCH LESS HUMIDITY. WE'LL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE  
BEACHES AS THE ONSHORE WINDS FINALLY RELENT, BUT IT COULD BE A  
WHILE BEFORE WE SHAKE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS MULTIPLE  
SWELL GROUPS MARAUD THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN, AND MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE WHILE CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH'S SET OF HIGH  
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. UNCERTAINTY HOW THE LOW WILL EVOLVE DOESN'T  
HELP DETERMINING HOW LONG IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE.  
 
TUESDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...BROAD HIGH  
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO NEXT  
WEEK, GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK.  
LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT PAIRED WITH LOWER PWATS MEAN THAT THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS EAST  
CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 20%  
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, VEERING TO OUT OF THE EAST ON  
FRIDAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT RETURN OF MOISTURE,  
WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS POINT, AND  
AGAIN, RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20%. TEMPERATURES  
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS  
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. LATE NEXT  
WEEK, LOWS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
COASTAL HAZARDS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS  
AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST  
AND ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT HAS CAUSED NRLY WINDS IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS TO INCREASE  
TO 20-25 KTS AND ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS  
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS, PROMPTING A GALE WARNING TO BE  
ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS HAVE  
INCREASED TO 10 FT AT BUOY 41070 13 NM NORTHEAST OF PONCE INLET IN  
RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASED WINDS, WITH SEAS FORECAST TO REACH UP  
TO 13 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. TO THE SOUTH, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES  
REMAIN IN EFFECT WHERE N-NNW WINDS 20-25 KTS ARE FORECAST IN THE  
SPACE COAST WATERS AND 15-20 KTS IN THE TREASURE COAST WATERS, AND  
SEAS BUILD TO 6-9 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-11 FT OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A LIGHTNING STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
 
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE LOW  
LIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS FLORIDA, BUT  
SEAS WILL REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN  
CHOPPY/UNFAVORABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDS IMPROVE  
QUICKER, BECOMING NW-NE AT 10-15 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN 15-20 KTS IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS  
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL  
FLOW FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. BREEZY/GUSTY  
NW-N WIND FLOW ALSO BRINGING FAST-MOVING SHRA ACROSS MANY  
TERMINALS ESP NEAR THE COAST. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH  
LATE AFTN GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BUT MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  
NORTH WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS, INCLUDING  
MCO, BACKING MORE NW ON SUNDAY WITH LESS GUSTINESS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 65 80 64 82 / 30 10 10 10  
MCO 65 83 65 85 / 10 10 0 10  
MLB 68 82 67 83 / 20 10 0 10  
VRB 68 83 66 84 / 20 10 0 0  
LEE 63 82 63 84 / 10 0 0 0  
SFB 65 82 64 85 / 10 10 0 10  
ORL 65 82 65 84 / 10 10 0 10  
FPR 67 84 66 84 / 20 10 0 10  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ141.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
FLZ141-347-447.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ154-159-164-  
647-747.  
 
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ550-570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ550.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ552.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ555.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ575.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...HALEY  
AVIATION...KELLY  
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