099
FXUS62 KMLB 121806
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
- COASTAL FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY, GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. LOCALLY,
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING DRIER AIR
TOWARDS THE AREA, RESULTING IN PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.2" AREAWIDE.
THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
POPS REMAINING BELOW 20%. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO HELP CLEAR OUT
SOME OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE, WITH SUNNIER SKIES FORECAST
BY THE AFTERNOON. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.
COASTAL HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST. COASTAL FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, ELEVATED SEAS, AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO AVOID THE
BEACHES AND IN PARTICULAR, AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN.
MONDAY-SATURDAY...THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS IS FORECAST
TO BECOME BROADER INTO MONDAY, WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING TOWARDS
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STILL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN THE
FORECAST. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA MIDWEEK AND A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN US LATE WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN THE LOW 80S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED WHEN
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE BEACHES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS IN THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 11 FEET. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO MONDAY, WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
SEAS THEN REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REBUILDING TO 7 OR 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS MID TO LATE WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO
DRIER AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY N/NW
INTERIOR AND N/NE COAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO MON ESP MCO
NORTHWARD AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ON MON
OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 81 65 82 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 64 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 66 82 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 65 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 63 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 63 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 64 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 64 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ141.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...KELLY
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