383  
FXUS62 KMLB 121839  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
239 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE EVEN AS SURF STARTS TO  
APPEAR LESS THREATENING. ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY  
DISCOURAGED!  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THROUGH THE EARLY  
WEEK DUE TO LINGERING CHOPPY SEAS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO  
DETERIORATE AGAIN MID-WEEK.  
 
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA  
THROUGH THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST  
CENTRAL FLORIDA (NICE TO FINALLY BE ABLE TO SAY THAT). THE ONE  
CAVEAT IS ELEVATED SEAS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO  
BATTER THE COAST, PRODUCING NUMEROUS LIFE-THREATENING RIP  
CURRENTS, ROUGH/HIGH SURF, AND COASTAL FLOODING LEADING TO MINOR  
TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION DURING THE HIGH TIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
THE VOLUSIA BEACHES WHICH HAVE BEEN HIT HARDEST AND ARE CLOSED TO  
THE PUBLIC (FLYING DOUBLE RED FLAGS) DUE TO THESE HAZARDS AND  
DEBRIS IN THE WATER. WE ARE APPROACHING THE TIME WHEN MANY SURF  
RELATED DROWNINGS OCCUR, WHEN THE WATERS BEGINS TO LOOK LESS  
THREATENING BUT THESE HAZARDS PERSIST. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE  
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO AVOID THE BEACHES AND IN PARTICULAR, AVOID  
ENTERING THE OCEAN.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FINALLY ARRIVED, BRINGING A  
FEELING OF FALL TO THE AREA WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,  
LOWER HUMIDITY, AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S (A FEW  
OF THE NORMALLY COOLER NORTHERN SPOTS EVEN MADE IT DOWN TO THE  
U50S). A FEW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE TREASURE COAST ON  
CONVERGENCE LINES IN HIGHER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, WHICH  
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS,  
KEPT THE RADAR IN PRECIP MODE THIS MORNING, AND CAN'T RULE OUT A  
FEW MORE SHOWERS HERE AS WELL AS THE FAR SOUTHERN COAST, BUT  
THAT'S IT. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE L-M80S WITH  
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES  
COOL INTO THE M70S THIS EVENING, THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 60S EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
 
MONDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE COASTAL LOW  
OFF THE CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME BROADER INTO MONDAY, WITH  
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND  
POTENTIALLY PUSHING TOWARDS FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO  
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ATLANTIC  
WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS STILL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE  
WITHIN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST,  
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK AS A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA  
MIDWEEK, AND A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN US LATE  
WEEK. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
COULD SWEEP IN TOWARDS FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT, AND VERY LOW (20%  
OR LESS) RAIN CHANCES HAVE CREPT BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH  
THURSDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD, IN THE LOW 80S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY.  
 
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT  
LEAST MONDAY, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS THREAT WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ENTERING THE OCEAN, WHICH MAY  
LOOK UNTHREATENING, IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED WHEN THERE IS A HIGH  
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS PLANNING TO HEAD TO  
THE BEACHES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL  
EXTENSIONS IN THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF  
LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC  
WATERS, WINDS HAVE BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOATING FROM THE  
NW-N AT 10-15 KTS, BUT SEAS REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS WITH THE  
PONCE INLET AND FORT PIERCE INLET BUOYS REPORTING SEAS TO 6 FT AND  
THE BUOY 20 NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL REPORTING 8 FT SEAS, INDICATING  
HIGHER SEAS AREA LIKELY FURTHER INTO THE GULF STREAM. SEAS WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO FALL OFF  
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR CHOPPY SEAS 4-6 FT AFTER THE  
ADVISORIES EXPIRE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TREASURE  
COAST WATERS AND SOUTHERNMOST COAST, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
MONDAY-THURSDAY...IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SEAS  
SETTLE TO 4-6 FT WITH NW-NNE WINDS 10-15 KTS. MIDWEEK, A  
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH FLORIDA FOLLOWED BY  
AN AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE  
WEEK WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE FROM  
THE N-NE AT 10-15 KTS, PERIODICALLY UP TO 15-20 KTS, SWELL FROM  
THE MID- ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE  
AREA BY WEDNESDAY, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-8 FT AGAIN THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
VFR CONDS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY N/NW  
INTERIOR AND N/NE COAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS REMAINDER OF THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME INCREASE  
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO MON ESP MCO  
NORTHWARD AS MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ON MON  
OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 63 81 65 82 / 10 10 0 0  
MCO 64 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0  
MLB 66 82 68 83 / 0 0 0 0  
VRB 65 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0  
LEE 63 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 63 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0  
ORL 64 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0  
FPR 64 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-  
164-347-447-647-747.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ141.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ575.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HALEY  
AVIATION...KELLY  
 
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