170  
FXUS62 KMLB 131057  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
657 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES; ENTERING  
THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE ON  
TUESDAY, THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY  
 
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN  
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE; NEAR TO SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE WEEK KICKS OFF WITH ANOTHER COOL MORNING, AS  
TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A 500MB TROUGH,  
AND THESE CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR  
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE WEATHER-  
WISE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL LINGER,  
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO  
BUILD OVER WESTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS PUSHES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. DAYTIME  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETREAT  
INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER.  
 
AT THE COAST, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES. BEACH  
CONDITIONS ARE POOR IN MANY SPOTS ALONG OUR COASTLINE DUE TO RECENT  
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IMPACTS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE  
ENCOURAGED TO AVOID IMPACTED AREAS AND TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER  
ALTOGETHER.  
 
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER, THE POINT AT ASTOR IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. FARTHER UPSTREAM,  
POINTS AT DELAND, SANFORD, AND GENEVA REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND  
THE NORTHERN U.S. TUESDAY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON  
WEDNESDAY, WHILE H5 RIDGING EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE ARKLATEX  
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA EXISTS ON THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, RESULTING IN DEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW  
INTO MID WEEK. APPRECIABLE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST TO  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ANOTHER DEGREE  
OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON (LOW-MID 80S). BY WEDNESDAY, LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE (BELOW 850MB) ADVECTS TOWARD THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST, IN  
CONCERT WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH-  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
SUFFICIENT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS  
MOVING ASHORE. OVERALL, QPF REMAINS VERY LIGHT (A FEW HUNDREDTHS  
ALONG THE COAST) AND LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL BE EVEN LESS  
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE A BIT THOUGH,  
AND COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL A FEW  
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL.  
 
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE, WORSENING AGAIN FROM  
WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVE AT THE COAST.  
 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS GAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ON  
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE  
DAY. ADDITIONALLY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH  
DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW, AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF  
CAPE CANAVERAL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE MORE ISOLATED  
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER INLAND,  
ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB CLOSER TO THE MID 80S. A SHOWER OR TWO  
MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY  
FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS LARGELY RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND. MODEL DISCREPANCIES BECOME APPARENT AFTER THE H5 RIDGE  
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH GUIDANCE DEVELOPING  
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SPEED AND EXPANSE OF THIS  
TROUGH BECOMES A BIGGER QUESTION FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. UNCERTAINTY  
ALSO EXISTS REGARDING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON  
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP DEEPER  
MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT THIS IS JUST ANOTHER  
FEATURE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
ALL IN ALL, EXPECT A LOT OF DRY TIME WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING  
FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EACH DAY TO THE 60S EACH NIGHT. LIFE-  
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT  
LEAST LATE WEEK.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING OVER  
THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS (20-60NM). POOR BOATING  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS, BRIEFLY IMPROVING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. A SLIGHT UPTICK  
IN WIND SPEEDS (15-20 KT) IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS  
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS BUILDS SEAS TO 5-8 FEET. SEAS THEN BEGIN TO  
SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
TO CALM WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE N AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE  
MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM  
ONCE MORE AFTER 00Z. NO VIS OR CIG CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 81 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0  
MCO 84 65 85 65 / 0 0 0 0  
MLB 82 69 83 69 / 0 0 0 0  
VRB 83 69 83 67 / 0 0 0 0  
LEE 84 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 84 64 85 65 / 0 0 0 0  
ORL 83 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 0  
FPR 83 66 83 66 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ570-572.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER  
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab FL Page
Main Text Page