806  
FXUS62 KMLB 131831  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
231 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES; ENTERING  
THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.  
 
- BOATING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN  
DETERIORATE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN  
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE; NEAR TO SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...ANOTHER (FINALLY) PLEASANT DAY ACROSS  
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALOFT THE SHARP TROUGH COMPRISED OF TWO MID-  
LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD "CONSOLIDATES" INTO A SINGLE  
ARE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC, AS THE  
FEATURE BEGINS TO DEPART INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO  
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE  
THE LOW PRESSURE(S) SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE TROUGH HAS BECOME VERY ELONGATED AND MESSY, AND AT LEAST  
FOR NOW HAS SHED THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING FROM  
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS. A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAREST LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS SWUNG  
THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE OTHER THAN ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO  
SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY FOR DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE  
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE  
GULF. WE'LL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES.  
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT  
IN THE L-M80S AND LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE L-M60S INLAND AND  
M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
THE CONTINUED CAVEAT IS POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS, WHERE  
A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES DESPITE  
SURF APPEARING TO LOOK MORE INVITING, AND MANY PARTS OF THE BEACH  
REMAIN UNSAFE DUE TO COASTAL FLOOD AND EROSION IMPACTS. RESIDENTS  
AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO AVOID IMPACTED AREAS AND TO STAY  
OUT OF THE WATER ALTOGETHER.  
 
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER, ASTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN  
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. FARTHER UPSTREAM, POINTS AT  
DELAND, SANFORD, AND GENEVA REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE, AND COCOA MAY  
REACH ACTION STAGE.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US  
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY BETWEEN DEEP UPPER TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED MID-  
LEVEL LOWS OVER THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, SHIFTING  
GRADUALLY EAST IN THE PROCESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
NORTH CENTRAL US/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST  
ALONG THE WITH RIDGE. LOCALLY WE REMAIN MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA, BUT WILL SEE THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN A BIT WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING  
SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE  
HIGH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS TO TICK UP A BIT FROM 5-10 MPH  
TUESDAY TO AROUND 10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST  
WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" TUESDAY  
WILL MAKE FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NO  
RAIN CHANCES, BUT ON WEDNESDAY A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS  
ACROSS FLORIDA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHT UP TICK IN WINDS,  
COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS (20% CHANCE) AND AN  
INCREASED CU- FIELD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M80S, MAYBE UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA  
COAST TUESDAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S, GETTING CLOSE TO THE  
L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE, WORSENING AGAIN FROM  
WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVE AT THE COAST.  
 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WINDS GAIN MORE  
OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, A REINFORCING COLD  
FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW, AREAS CLOSER  
TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO  
EXPERIENCE MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LESS CLOUD COVER IS  
ANTICIPATED FARTHER INLAND, ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB CLOSER TO THE  
MID 80S. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE  
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS LARGELY  
RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL DISCREPANCIES BECOME  
APPARENT AFTER THE H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY, WITH GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL  
CONUS. THE SPEED AND EXPANSE OF THIS TROUGH BECOMES A BIGGER  
QUESTION FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS REGARDING A  
MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR OVER  
CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH  
FLORIDA, BUT THIS IS JUST ANOTHER FEATURE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE  
WEEK.  
 
ALL IN ALL, EXPECT A LOT OF DRY TIME WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING  
FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EACH DAY TO THE 60S EACH NIGHT. LIFE-  
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT  
LEAST LATE WEEK.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
BOATING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE NEARSHORE CENTRAL FLORIDA  
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SEAS 3-5 FT, BUT REMAIN POOR IN PORTIONS OF  
THE GULF STREAM DUE TO LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. SEAS BRIEFLY SETTLE TO  
3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS  
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
GULF EXTENDING TO THE LOCAL WATERS, WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD FINALLY PUSHES OUT TO SEA.  
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US MID TO LATE  
WEEK, PRECEDED BY A DRY COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE  
WEEK. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE REINFORCING HIGH AND  
DEPARTING LOW, PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY, BUT THE GREATEST IMPACT  
WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE LOW BUILDING SEAS TO 5-9 FT  
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT A  
FEW BANDS OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS UP TO  
10 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, RETURNING  
NORTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN A PATCHY CUMULUS DECK, SKIES  
REMAIN CLEAR.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 65 82 66 80 / 0 0 0 10  
MCO 65 85 65 83 / 0 0 0 10  
MLB 68 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 20  
VRB 67 83 68 83 / 0 10 0 20  
LEE 63 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 64 84 65 82 / 0 0 0 10  
ORL 65 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 10  
FPR 66 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 10  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...HALEY  
AVIATION...SCHAPER  
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