025  
FXUS62 KMLB 141800  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES; ENTERING  
THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED  
 
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH A  
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
 
- BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND  
REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH FRIDAY  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING ANOTHER DRY AND CALM  
START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S  
(COAST). MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ALONG  
AND WEST OF THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING, MAINLY NORTH  
OF OUR AREA. IF AND WHEN FOG DEVELOPS, SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD  
SPILL SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE GEORGE AND ASTOR BEFORE SUNRISE.  
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES  
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH  
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, OCCASIONALLY  
GUSTING ABOVE 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST.  
 
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.  
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.  
 
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER, THE POINT AT ASTOR IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FARTHER  
UPSTREAM, POINTS AT DELAND, SANFORD, AND GENEVA REMAIN IN ACTION  
STAGE.  
 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX  
WILL EXTEND NORTH TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL  
FLORIDA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND ON THE FAR  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SEAWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH. IN RESPONSE,  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN TIME,  
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC TIGHTENS A BIT MID  
WEEK. THUS, SLIGHTLY BREEZIER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED,  
PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN  
VERY DRY (ABOVE 850MB), INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS  
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD SHALLOW CUMULUS EACH DAY. WITH JUST ENOUGH  
MOISTURE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SURFACE, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE, SO MAINTAINED A 15% CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. ANOTHER  
PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A  
COLD FRONT. COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AS WELL,  
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS OVER  
THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH WARMER  
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST EACH NIGHT (DAYTIME: LOW-MID 80S /  
OVERNIGHT: 60S-LOW 70S).  
 
THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AND WORSEN BY  
THURSDAY AS LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVE AT THE COAST.  
 
FRIDAY-MONDAY...BEHIND THURSDAY'S FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.,  
THE BASE OF IT FLATTENS AS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE  
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER OCCLUDING OVER CANADA, A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED  
TO GRADUALLY APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT  
AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY, BUT QUESTIONS  
REMAIN ABOUT RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST INCLUDES  
A 15-20% CHANCE AREAWIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
PRIOR TO THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK FRONT, CONDITIONS LOOK TO  
STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WINDS VEER  
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING PW VALUES  
(1.7-2.0") SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS SWING BACK  
AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO  
THIS WEEK IS IN THE CARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN  
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN APPEARS TO BE  
SUNDAY, THANKS TO RETURN FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE BEACH, KEEP  
IN MIND THAT THE RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN  
HIGH FRIDAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN NNE 10-15 KT. POOR CONDITIONS RESUME ACROSS  
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS 6 FT SEAS BUILD SOUTHWARD,  
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS  
ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS LONG-PERIOD  
SWELLS BUILD TO 5-8 FT (UP TO 9 FT WELL OFFSHORE). A MODERATE TO  
FRESH BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED, STARTING NNE WEDNESDAY, VEERING NE  
THURSDAY, THEN ENE FRIDAY. IMPROVED CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN ON  
SATURDAY AS WAVES DECREASE TO 4-5 FT (UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM).  
 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON BUT  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
INCREASES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE FOR COASTAL  
SHRA, NOT EVEN ENOUGH FOR VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS  
NNE- NE AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT NNW-NNE AND VRB  
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY, TO AROUND 10  
KTS IN THE MORNING AND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS IN THE  
LATE MORNING- EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, AND IN  
THE AFTERNOON FOR KMCO AND OTHER INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS AT KDAB  
COULD TIP OVER 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED WINDS WILL  
SUPPORT LOW (AROUND 20%) CHANCE OF SHRA AT MOST TERMINALS. KDAB-  
KTIX COULD SEE SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z, BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH 12Z FOR  
VCSH IN THE TAFS BASED ON HREF GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TREND AT INLAND  
TERMINALS, COULD SEE SHRA AS EARLY AS 16Z, BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE  
OPTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH AT 19Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 67 80 68 82 / 20 20 10 10  
MCO 66 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 10  
MLB 68 82 70 83 / 20 20 20 10  
VRB 68 83 70 83 / 20 20 20 20  
LEE 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 10 10  
ORL 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 10 10  
FPR 67 83 70 83 / 20 20 20 20  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
AMZ572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
AMZ575.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER  
AVIATION...HALEY  
 
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