829
FXUS62 KMLB 141907
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N/NE AND INCREASE, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY, WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1-1.2 INCHES.
HOWEVER, WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL BE ABLE TO
PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WILL
HAVE TO THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.
A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BEHIND THURSDAY'S
FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALOFT, REGARDING TO SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND
STRENGTH OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD FLORIDA EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR INTO MONDAY.
PRIOR TO THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK FRONT, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD NBM GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, WITH POPS
REMAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND
20 PERCENT ON MONDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TO THIS WEEK IS IN THE CARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY, THANKS TO RETURN FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE BEACH, KEEP
IN MIND THAT THE RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK, A WEAK FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. N/NE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW,
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA WATERS AND 10-15 KNOTS FARTHER
SOUTH. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS WELL UP TO 4-6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT, AND
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SEAS BUILD UP TO 7 FEET.
STARTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA WATERS AND THEN HAVE IT GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOATING
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS, AND SEAS ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 4-5 FEET INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE FOR COASTAL
SHRA, NOT EVEN ENOUGH FOR VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
NNE-NE AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT NNW-NNE AND VRB
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY, TO AROUND 10
KTS IN THE MORNING AND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING- EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, AND IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR KMCO AND OTHER INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS AT KDAB
COULD TIP OVER 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT LOW (AROUND 20%) CHANCE OF SHRA AT MOST TERMINALS. KDAB-
KTIX COULD SEE SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z, BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH 12Z FOR
VCSH IN THE TAFS BASED ON HREF GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TREND AT INLAND
TERMINALS, COULD SEE SHRA AS EARLY AS 16Z, BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH AT 19Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 80 68 82 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 66 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 68 82 70 83 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 68 83 70 83 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 67 83 70 83 / 20 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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