907  
FXUS62 KMLB 142322  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
722 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH  
THE WORK WEEK; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED  
 
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH A LOW  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
 
- BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN  
POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH FRIDAY  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST  
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N/NE AND INCREASE, WITH BREEZY  
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL  
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY, WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1-1.2 INCHES.  
HOWEVER, WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN  
THE LOWER LEVELS, ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS AND WILL BE ABLE TO  
PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WILL  
HAVE TO THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED RAIN  
CHANCES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY-MONDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BEHIND THURSDAY'S  
FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE  
EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD  
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES  
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALOFT, REGARDING TO SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND  
STRENGTH OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
EASTERN U.S. INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD FLORIDA EITHER SUNDAY  
NIGHT OR INTO MONDAY.  
 
PRIOR TO THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK FRONT, CONDITIONS LOOK TO  
STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING  
MOISTURE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. STILL MUCH  
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD NBM GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, WITH POPS  
REMAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND  
20 PERCENT ON MONDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO  
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FORECAST  
TO THIS WEEK IS IN THE CARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MORNING LOWS  
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN APPEARS TO  
BE SUNDAY, THANKS TO RETURN FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE BEACH, KEEP  
IN MIND THAT THE RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN  
HIGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID TO  
LATE WEEK, A WEAK FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE  
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. N/NE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW,  
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA WATERS AND 10-15 KNOTS FARTHER  
SOUTH. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC WATERS  
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. SEAS  
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS WELL UP TO 4-6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT, AND  
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS BOATING  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SEAS BUILD UP TO 7 FEET.  
STARTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE  
VOLUSIA WATERS AND THEN HAVE IT GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOATING  
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM  
THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
 
BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN  
15 KNOTS, AND SEAS ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 4-5 FEET INTO SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,  
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST,  
MAINLY FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS  
MAY BRUSH THE COAST OVERNIGHT, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
LOW. INLAND, DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS. SO, WHILE A FEW  
PERSISTENT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW ENOUGH  
OF THEM TO NEGATE A VCSH MENTION FOR INTERIOR SITES. NORTHERLY  
WINDS OVERNIGHT 4-6KTS WILL VEER NNE THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE  
TO 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE COAST FROM MLB NORTHWARD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 67 80 68 82 / 20 20 10 10  
MCO 66 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 10  
MLB 68 82 70 83 / 20 20 20 10  
VRB 68 83 70 83 / 20 20 20 20  
LEE 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 10 10  
ORL 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 10 10  
FPR 67 83 70 83 / 20 20 20 20  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
AMZ572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
AMZ575.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH  
AVIATION...LEAHY  
 
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