371  
FXUS62 KMLB 151857  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
CURRENT-TONIGHT... WHILE MOSTLY DRY, THE XMR 10Z SOUNDING HAS SHOWN  
A MODEST LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO  
SUPPORT LIGHT ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS, REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS THE  
ORLANDO METRO THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET, THE FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERS  
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, AND HAVE KEPT A 20 PERCENT  
POP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE  
BOUNDARY PASSES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW  
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, WELL OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN  
RESPONSE, A SURGE OF LOCALLY HIGHER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND  
20 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COASTLINE AND ADJACENT LOCAL  
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS COASTAL  
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.  
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE,  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIFT  
EASTWARD, STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A DRY AIRMASS  
PERSISTS LOCALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING REINFORCED AS A DRY  
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO  
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY, STILL REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES.  
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ONSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH GENEROUS  
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE  
COAST THURSDAY EVENING/ NIGHT, AND HAVE INCLUDED A 15-20% POP FOR  
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY FALL A FEW DEGREES  
INTO FRIDAY, MORE WIDELY RANGING THE LOW 80S. LOWS SPREADING THE MID  
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/ LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST ARE  
FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.  
 
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ALONG  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.  
MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE  
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A ECMWF SOLUTION PULLS  
THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE  
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO  
MID 80S SATURDAY MOSTLY RANGE THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY. PRECIP AND  
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MONDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT  
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT. RELYING ON THE NBM AS A FIRST GUESS,  
AND KEEPING ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS  
NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD SEAS INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES  
SPREAD THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS (20-60NM) FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE, SMALL  
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE (0-20NM) WATERS  
FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS  
WINDS SLACKEN AND VEER EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. SEAS BUILD UP  
TO 6 FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS A LONG PERIOD  
SWELL INCREASES FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE  
AND INLAND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY  
NEAR TO SOUTH OF KMCO-KTIX. BRIEF TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY, BUT MOSTLY REMAINING VFR WITH CIGS  
AROUND 4-6KFT. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF  
KMCO/KISM/KTIX BY 20-21Z, BUT MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE FROM  
KMLB SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. N/NE WINDS  
UP TO 10-13 KNOTS AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REMAIN  
BREEZY UP TO 14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KNOTS AT KDAB. WINDS  
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 5-7 KNOTS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 67 82 67 80 / 10 0 10 0  
MCO 66 85 67 83 / 10 0 0 0  
MLB 70 82 70 80 / 20 10 20 0  
VRB 70 83 70 81 / 20 10 20 0  
LEE 63 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 66 84 66 83 / 10 0 10 0  
ORL 66 84 67 83 / 10 0 0 0  
FPR 69 83 70 81 / 20 10 20 0  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR AMZ572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR AMZ575.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...LAW  
AVIATION...WEITLICH  
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