305
FXUS62 KMLB 152330
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
730 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... WHILE MOSTLY DRY, THE XMR 10Z SOUNDING HAS SHOWN
A MODEST LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIGHT ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS, REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS THE
ORLANDO METRO THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET, THE FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, AND HAVE KEPT A 20 PERCENT
POP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, WELL OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
RESPONSE, A SURGE OF LOCALLY HIGHER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND
20 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COASTLINE AND ADJACENT LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD, STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A DRY AIRMASS
PERSISTS LOCALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING REINFORCED AS A DRY
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY, STILL REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ONSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH GENEROUS
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY EVENING/ NIGHT, AND HAVE INCLUDED A 15-20% POP FOR
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
INTO FRIDAY, MORE WIDELY RANGING THE LOW 80S. LOWS SPREADING THE MID
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/ LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST ARE
FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A ECMWF SOLUTION PULLS
THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S SATURDAY MOSTLY RANGE THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY. PRECIP AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MONDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT. RELYING ON THE NBM AS A FIRST GUESS,
AND KEEPING ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD SEAS INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SPREAD THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS (20-60NM) FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 7 FT. OTHERWISE, SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE (0-20NM) WATERS
FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS SLACKEN AND VEER EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. SEAS BUILD UP
TO 6 FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS A LONG PERIOD
SWELL INCREASES FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER, BRIEFING MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TIX. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
(TIX/MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA), AS TIMING THE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE AND THE FACT THAT MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
ONSHORE-MOVING, LOW TOPPED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL
VEER NNE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 82 67 80 / 10 0 10 0
MCO 66 85 67 83 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 70 82 70 80 / 20 10 20 0
VRB 70 83 70 81 / 20 10 20 0
LEE 63 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 66 84 66 83 / 10 0 10 0
ORL 66 84 67 83 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 69 83 70 81 / 20 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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