192  
FXUS62 KMLB 162334  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
734 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
CURRENT-TONIGHT... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT, AND A FEW MAY WANDER ONSHORE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,  
MOSTLY DRY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FALL TO AROUND 5-  
10 MPH TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE  
COAST.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE  
EASTERN U.S., MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY. BREEZY  
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FLOW SLACKENING AND SHIFTING  
OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY ONSHORE-  
MOVING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT EXPECTING POPS TO REMAIN  
MOSTLY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RANGE THE LOW 80S EACH DAY,  
BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR MAY TOUCH THE MID 80S.  
COOLER MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH VALUES IN THE  
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE  
COAST. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE MAY EVEN  
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
DON'T LET PLEASANT WEATHER FOOL YOU, HAZARDS CAN STILL BE PRESENT  
EVEN DURING BLUE SKY DAYS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE, WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST  
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS  
ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE OCEAN.  
 
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURNS  
LOCALLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST  
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE FRONT WASHES  
OUT AND SLOWS SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN  
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SECOND FRONT FORECAST TO  
APPROACH THE AREA AGAIN MID WEEK. HAVE KEPT NO MENTIONABLE RAIN  
CHANCES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY, REACHING THE UPPER 80S  
IN MOST SPOTS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR AND  
EAST OF I-95, SPREADING THE MID 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST  
MORNING OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND  
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MORE WIDELY RANGE THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S MONDAY AND INTO MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS WILL MAINTAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS  
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE  
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS (20-60 NM), EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE  
TREASURE COAST (0-20 NM) WATERS AFTER 8PM FOR SEAS OF 6-8 FT. SMALL  
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND NEARSHORE  
BREVARD (0-20 NM) FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS VEER  
EAST AROUND 10 KTS INTO SATURDAY, FURTHER VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON  
SUNDAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A  
LONGER PERIOD SWELL BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS BACK TO 6 FT ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE GULF STREAM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WASHING OUT AS IS PASSES THE LOCAL WATERS. ROUNDS  
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH  
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT  
ALONG THE COAST, WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THE TAF SITES THERE. DRIER  
AIR TOWARDS SUNRISE SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MORNING  
HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY NE WINDS  
SLACKENING OVERNIGHT, THEN ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15  
KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST, BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 68 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0  
MCO 68 83 64 83 / 10 0 0 0  
MLB 71 81 68 81 / 20 0 0 0  
VRB 71 81 67 81 / 20 0 0 0  
LEE 65 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 67 82 63 83 / 10 0 0 0  
ORL 68 82 64 83 / 10 0 0 0  
FPR 70 81 66 81 / 20 0 0 0  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ555.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ572-575.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...LAW  
AVIATION...LEAHY  
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