459
FXUS62 KMLB 170535
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, AND A FEW MAY WANDER ONSHORE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FALL TO AROUND 5-
10 MPH TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FLOW SLACKENING AND SHIFTING
OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY ONSHORE-
MOVING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT EXPECTING POPS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RANGE THE LOW 80S EACH DAY,
BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR MAY TOUCH THE MID 80S.
COOLER MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE MAY EVEN
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY MORNING.
DON'T LET PLEASANT WEATHER FOOL YOU, HAZARDS CAN STILL BE PRESENT
EVEN DURING BLUE SKY DAYS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE, WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE OCEAN.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURNS
LOCALLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT AND SLOWS SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SECOND FRONT FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA AGAIN MID WEEK. HAVE KEPT NO MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY, REACHING THE UPPER 80S
IN MOST SPOTS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR AND
EAST OF I-95, SPREADING THE MID 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
MORNING OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MORE WIDELY RANGE THE MID TO
UPPER 60S MONDAY AND INTO MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS WILL MAINTAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS (20-60 NM), EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE
TREASURE COAST (0-20 NM) WATERS AFTER 8PM FOR SEAS OF 6-8 FT. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND NEARSHORE
BREVARD (0-20 NM) FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS VEER
EAST AROUND 10 KTS INTO SATURDAY, FURTHER VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
LONGER PERIOD SWELL BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS BACK TO 6 FT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF STREAM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WASHING OUT AS IS PASSES THE LOCAL WATERS. ROUNDS
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH CLOUD CIGS 040-070 AGL AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHRA WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE COAST REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR ADVECTION TOWARDS SUNRISE SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONSHORE (NE) WINDS PERSIST AT COASTAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHTER NORTH WIND INTERIOR TERMINALS
(MCO). NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE 10-15 KTS AFT 14Z FRI ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS, GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS ESP ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 63 81 63 / 10 0 0 10
MCO 83 63 82 64 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 82 67 81 67 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 82 67 82 66 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 84 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 62 82 63 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 83 63 83 65 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 82 66 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-572-
575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...KELLY
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