159  
FXUS62 KMLB 171046  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, WITH ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT  
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND  
 
- MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY  
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE  
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING, AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LOCALLY, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
WITHIN THE LOWEST 150 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED  
CLOUDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN STOUT NORTHEAST FLOW.  
UPSTREAM, GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR  
FILTERING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.10"  
LOCALLY, TO AS LOW AS 0.40" OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. MODELS ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER  
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO  
AROUND 0.70-0.80" TONIGHT (AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR  
OCTOBER). ANY REMAINING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE  
SCOURED OUT BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN A PLEASANT, MOSTLY SUNNY  
DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITHIN A  
DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND AS A  
POTENTIALLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY  
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD  
AND STEADILY LESSEN, EVENTUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY.  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RE-BUILD, RESULTING IN MORE  
COASTAL CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE FROM THE  
ATLANTIC. STILL, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SAID SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO A SILENT 10% POP SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STEADILY  
RECOVERING INTO THE MID, TO PERHAPS UPPER, 80S ON SUNDAY.  
 
THOUGH THE SURF AND WEATHER MAY LOOK MORE INVITING THAN THE PAST TWO  
WEEKENDS, ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LONG-PERIOD SWELL WILL  
MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE  
OCEAN!  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ITS TRAILING SURFACE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH  
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH  
FLORIDA. MOISTURE RECOVERY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEAR  
MINIMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SO DEEP CONVECTION  
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. SUSPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, SO, OPTED TO INSERT A LOW 10% POP FOR NOW.  
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO FILL IN ON TUESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY  
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LIMITED COOLING IS  
ADVERTISED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL AT OR ABOVE  
NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST BY MIDWEEK BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY  
DRIER AIR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL  
MAINTAIN STOUT NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. POOR  
TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL RESULT, UP TO 7 FT OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE  
GULF STREAM. SEAS LESSEN SOME OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN POOR OFFSHORE,  
AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DROP TO 10 - 15 KNOTS.  
 
WINDS RELAX THIS WEEKEND WHILE VEERING FROM THE EAST (SATURDAY)  
TO THE SOUTHEAST (SUNDAY) AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SEAS WILL BE  
SLOW TO IMPROVE, REMAINING BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, BEFORE A LONGER  
PERIOD SWELL BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS BACK UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE  
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF  
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN LIGHTER, AND MORE VARIABLE,  
WINDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MARINE  
STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE ATLC WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE CIGS BTWN  
040-060 AGL. LIGHT NORTH BREEZE AT INTERIOR TERMINALS (MCO/SFB) AT  
TAF START WILL VEER NE TO ENE 10-15 KNOTS BY 15-16Z WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT COASTAL  
TERMINALS TODAY 10-20 KNOTS, BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT AND  
DECREASING AROUND 5 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 81 63 81 63 / 10 0 0 10  
MCO 83 63 82 64 / 10 0 0 0  
MLB 82 67 81 67 / 10 10 10 10  
VRB 82 67 82 66 / 10 10 10 10  
LEE 84 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 83 62 82 63 / 10 0 0 0  
ORL 83 63 83 65 / 10 0 0 0  
FPR 82 66 82 65 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-572-  
575.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...ULRICH  
AVIATION...KELLY  
 
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