816
FXUS62 KMLB 171721
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
121 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, WITH ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
- MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING, AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LOCALLY, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE LOWEST 150 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN STOUT NORTHEAST FLOW.
UPSTREAM, GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.10"
LOCALLY, TO AS LOW AS 0.40" OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
AROUND 0.70-0.80" TONIGHT (AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR
OCTOBER). ANY REMAINING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SCOURED OUT BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN A PLEASANT, MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND AS A
POTENTIALLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND STEADILY LESSEN, EVENTUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RE-BUILD, RESULTING IN MORE
COASTAL CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. STILL, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SAID SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO A SILENT 10% POP SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STEADILY
RECOVERING INTO THE MID, TO PERHAPS UPPER, 80S ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH THE SURF AND WEATHER MAY LOOK MORE INVITING THAN THE PAST TWO
WEEKENDS, ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LONG-PERIOD SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE
OCEAN!
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ITS TRAILING SURFACE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MOISTURE RECOVERY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEAR
MINIMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SO DEEP CONVECTION
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. SUSPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, SO, OPTED TO INSERT A LOW 10% POP FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO FILL IN ON TUESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LIMITED COOLING IS
ADVERTISED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST BY MIDWEEK BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MAINTAIN STOUT NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY. POOR
TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL RESULT, UP TO 7 FT OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE
GULF STREAM. SEAS LESSEN SOME OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN POOR OFFSHORE,
AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DROP TO 10 - 15 KNOTS.
WINDS RELAX THIS WEEKEND WHILE VEERING FROM THE EAST (SATURDAY)
TO THE SOUTHEAST (SUNDAY) AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE, REMAINING BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS BACK UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN LIGHTER, AND MORE VARIABLE,
WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH BKN CIGS
AROUND 4-6KFT AT TIMES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS IN THE E/NE FLOW, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS (LESS THAN 20%) TO INCLUDE ANY VCSH IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WIND SPEEDS 9-13 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE TO 4-7 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE TO 8-11
KNOTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 80 64 85 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 63 82 64 87 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 67 81 68 85 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 67 81 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 62 83 64 87 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 62 82 64 87 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 63 83 65 87 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 67 81 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-572-
575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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