839  
FXUS62 KMLB 171908  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC  
WATERS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM, WITH ONLY  
MINOR IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
- MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY  
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, AND  
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS ON A WEAK FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO AIR FILTER IN FROM  
THE NORTH AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM  
THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE  
GOES IMAGERY SHOW PWATS HAVE DROPPED TO 1.1" OR LESS (NEAR OR  
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE), AND ARE FORECAST TO  
FURTHER DROP TO 0.90" OR LESS TONIGHT, THE 10Z XMR SOUNDING AND  
RAP ANALYSIS, NOT TO MENTION HEALTHY CU-FIELD, SHOW THERE'S STILL  
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE  
INVERSION AROUND 850MB IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE  
OUT A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER MOVING ONSHORE, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE  
FOR MORE THAN A SILENT 10% CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS  
PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SETTLE TO AROUND 5 MPH  
OVERNIGHT. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S, WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S, MAYBE EVEN U50S IN THE USUALLY COOLER  
NORTHERN SPOTS, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
CENTRAL US CONSOLIDATES A FEW DISJOINTED MID-LEVEL LOWS AND  
TROUGHS INTO A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH, PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN US  
SUNDAY, THEN DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD.  
THIS WILL PUSH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US OFFSHORE, USHERING THE  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SOUTHEAST INTO THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOCALLY, GENTLE  
SURFACE WINDS FROM VEER FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY TO SOUTHERLY  
SUNDAY, AND WE'LL SEE A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO MENTIONABLE  
VALUES. HOWEVER, CAPPING FROM SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNTIL THE RIDGE  
MOVES OFF KEEPS OVERALL PWATS LESS THAN 0.90" SATURDAY AND 1.00"  
SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE SILENT 10% RAIN CHANCES FOR  
PRETTY MUCH ALL THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY AS ONSHORE  
FLOW CONTINUES, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WATERS  
SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT WILL BE LIMITED, AND A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. THERE  
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG, WITH BOTH  
12Z ECM AND GFS COMING IN MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS  
GUIDANCE, OPTING FOR THE TROUGH TO FALL SHORT OF FLORIDA, OTHER  
THAN SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE WHETHER  
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING, OR END  
UP IN CENTRAL FLORIDA, AS WELL AS IF, WHERE, AND WHEN WE MIGHT  
GET A FEW SHOWERS, AND LOW (AROUND 20%) POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT AS A RESULT. NOT MUCH  
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY BRINGS  
A QUICK WARM UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M-U80S.  
 
THOUGH THE SURF AND WEATHER MAY LOOK MORE INVITING THAN THE PAST  
TWO WEEKENDS, LONG-PERIOD SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE  
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE OCEAN!  
 
NEXT WEEK...LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE  
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA,  
DEPENDING HOW DEEP THE TROUGH ENDS UP MAKING IT. WHATEVER RAIN  
CHANCES WE HAVE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS  
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND REACHES THE AREA  
BY MIDWEEK, RESUMING DRY CONDITIONS THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK  
WEEK. TO DRIVE HOME HOW WEAK THE FIRST FRONT IS FORECAST,  
AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M-U80S FOR ALL  
BUT MAYBE COASTAL VOLUSIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE THE  
REINFORCING FRONT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL  
BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK, MOSTLY DRY FRONT REACHING THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO STALL OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY, BEFORE A  
REINFORCING DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EASE TO 5-15 KTS  
WHILE VEERING EASTERLY SATURDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND  
DIRECTION FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
FRONT'S POSITION, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 KTS OR LESS.  
SEAS 5-7 FT THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,  
THEN 3-5 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OFFSHORE BREVARD ATLANTIC WATERS  
THROUGH 8 PM FOR SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF  
STREAM THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND WEEKEND. A FEW LOW-TOPPED  
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND THERE IS A LOW (AROUND 20%) CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT, BUT LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH BKN CIGS  
AROUND 4-6KFT AT TIMES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ONSHORE MOVING  
SHOWERS IN THE E/NE FLOW, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW  
MENTIONABLE LEVELS (LESS THAN 20%) TO INCLUDE ANY VCSH IN THE  
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WIND SPEEDS 9-13 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON  
WILL DECREASE TO 4-7 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE TO 8-11  
KNOTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 64 80 64 85 / 10 10 10 10  
MCO 63 82 64 87 / 10 10 10 10  
MLB 67 81 68 85 / 10 10 10 10  
VRB 67 81 67 85 / 10 10 10 10  
LEE 62 83 64 87 / 10 10 10 10  
SFB 62 82 64 87 / 10 10 10 10  
ORL 63 83 65 87 / 10 10 10 10  
FPR 67 81 66 85 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-572-  
575.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HALEY  
AVIATION...WEITLICH  
 
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