249
FXUS62 KMLB 281757
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- REINFORCING COOL, DRY AIR MOVES IN LATE WEEK BEHIND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TODAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL REACHING
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE STRATUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/
DISSIPATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER WHICH MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. NOT AS WARM TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BREEZE DEVELOPING AND MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO AROUND 80 ORLANDO METRO. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN THE MID 80S. MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH LAKE AND INTERIOR
VOLUSIA WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT LOWER 70S MARTIN
COAST). HAVE RAISED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR BEACHES NORTH OF
THE CAPE TODAY AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT,
GENERATING A SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT.
WED-MON...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CARVE OUT
DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US THIS PERIOD ALLOWING A SERIES
OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL,
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED NIGHT
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S ON THU-SAT
WITH FRI BEING THE COOLEST DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE
WHICH WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COOLEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE
SAT MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INTERIOR AND MID 50S COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 60 COASTAL MARTIN). A SLOW WARMUP BEGINS SUN BUT
REMAINING DRY. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY BUT RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WHICH COULD PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO RAIN
CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLC WATERS TODAY. NORTH WINDS INCREASE 14-18KNOTS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH SEAS 4-6 FT OVER THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE BREVARD
WATERS SO HAVE A CAUTION HEADLINE THERE. ELSEWHERE, BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL DUE TO THE DEVELOPING NORTH
WIND COMPONENT. WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STRONGER FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT. W/NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 8 FT INTO THU SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THEN.
WINDS DECREASE FRI BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM THE WNW. THEN EVEN WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SAT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
EARLIER LIFR/IVR CIGS AND VIS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED TO MVFR, WITH
NEARLY ALL TERMINALS ACROSS THE SE US EXPERIENCING BKN/OVC
CONDITIONS. THIS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST
NORTH OF KVRB WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNALS OVERNIGHT DO NOT CARRY AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS
AGAIN, HOWEVER COULD SEE CONTINUED MVFR/IFR WITH PATCHY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD,
BECOMING VARIABLE JUST BEYOND HOUR 24.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 80 56 72 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 62 81 59 73 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 65 81 61 75 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 67 83 62 76 / 0 10 10 0
LEE 59 80 56 72 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 60 81 57 73 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 62 80 59 73 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 67 83 62 76 / 0 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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