248
FXUS62 KMLB 282354
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
754 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- REINFORCING COOL, DRY AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HALLOWEEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LIMITED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN PWATS BELOW 1". DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED, THOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-4, WHERE PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED THROUGH SUNRISE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
WITH 60S TO THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN, A CUTOFF LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRAG A REINFORCING, QUICKER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
CONTINUES A SERIES OF FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH, THURSDAY. A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN BEGINS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID-70S
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO FALL INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S IN MORE RURAL LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
TREASURE COAST.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK, BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S (AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THUS, IT'S POSSIBLE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET, AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS SEAS REMAIN UP TO 6 FT. THESE SEAS LOOK
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT, AS A WEAK FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THESE AREAS.
BUILDING SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
DEGRADE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY, DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN, A QUICKER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THURSDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
THEN FORECAST TO IMPROVE INTO LATE WEEK, DESPITE YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR AT MOST SITES FOR NOW, EXCEPT DAB/VRB, WHERE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
PRESENT. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDS THRU 14Z WITH ~40% MVFR
CIG PROBABILITIES (HREF) FROM MCO/ISM NORTHWARD. LOWER MVFR PROBS
EXIST TIX SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST FEW/SCT
015-025. CIG IMPROVEMENTS ARE FORECAST AFTER 14Z ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS, THOUGH SCT/BKN MVFR MAY LINGER AT VRB/FPR/SUA. N/NW
WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, RETURNING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 16Z FROM THE
WSW, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 80 56 72 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 62 81 59 73 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 65 81 61 75 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 67 83 62 76 / 0 10 10 0
LEE 59 80 56 72 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 60 81 57 73 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 62 80 59 73 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 67 83 62 76 / 0 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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