384
FXUS62 KMLB 290602
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
202 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- REINFORCING COOL, DRY AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HALLOWEEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LIMITED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN PWATS BELOW 1". DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED, THOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-4, WHERE PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED THROUGH SUNRISE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
WITH 60S TO THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN, A CUTOFF LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRAG A REINFORCING, QUICKER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
CONTINUES A SERIES OF FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH, THURSDAY. A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN BEGINS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID-70S
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO FALL INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S IN MORE RURAL LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
TREASURE COAST.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK, BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S (AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THUS, IT'S POSSIBLE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET, AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS SEAS REMAIN UP TO 6 FT. THESE SEAS LOOK
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT, AS A WEAK FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THESE AREAS.
BUILDING SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
DEGRADE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY, DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN, A QUICKER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THURSDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
THEN FORECAST TO IMPROVE INTO LATE WEEK, DESPITE YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
STRATUS PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CIGS FROM KLEE TO KDAB MAY BE ABLE TO
EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH KSFB/KMCO/KISM OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ANY STRATUS NEAR TO NW OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FROM
KTIX SOUTHWARD VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BUT MAY SEE A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NEXT
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE
THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FROM 3Z AT KLEE AND 5Z TOWARD I-4
CORRIDOR.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5-7 KNOTS WILL BECOME SW 6-8 KNOTS INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAY SEE SEA
BREEZE FORM SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E/NE AT THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD NEAR TO AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 56 73 49 / 0 20 0 0
MCO 81 58 73 51 / 0 20 10 0
MLB 81 61 75 53 / 0 20 10 0
VRB 82 62 76 53 / 10 20 10 0
LEE 79 56 73 48 / 10 20 10 0
SFB 81 57 73 50 / 0 20 10 0
ORL 81 59 73 51 / 0 20 10 0
FPR 82 62 76 53 / 10 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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