786
FXUS62 KMLB 291757
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
- BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS AGAIN AS
LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES AT THE BEACHES, AND WIND AND SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS INCREASE.
- FRIDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AND
50S FOR HALLOWEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1" CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER
FLORIDA FROM THE GULF. A DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE
CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE
RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY
RAIN CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND IN THE LOW-LEVELS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, THEN A LOW (AROUND 20%) CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO BE WELL CAPPED, AND CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING ARE EFFECTIVELY
ZERO. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
ANY SHOWERS THAN MANAGE TO FORM COULD BE GUSTY. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
U70S-L80S.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD SWELL. ENTERING THE SURF
IS NOT ADVISED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...STARTING OFF COOL THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE M50S-M60S,
POSSIBLY IN THE L50S IN THE USUALLY COOLER NORTHERN SPOTS. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST IN THE MORNING BUT
THESE WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE AND EVEN DRIER
AIR THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MIGHT BE ABLE TO BRING SOME
SHALLOW SHOWERS WHIPPED UP OVER THE GULF INTO THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA (RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LESS THAN
20%), BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOME MORE GENTLE FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY DECREASE
TO THE L-M70S, WITH A CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED AS MORNING
LOWS GET DOWN IN THE L50-U40S THANKS TO A SLUG OF COOLER AIR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY GET UP TO THE L70S (POSSIBLY SOME
U60S), WITH EVENING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S
AFTER 5 PM, AND INTO THE 50S AFTER 8 PM, MAKING FOR THE MOST
HALLOWEEN FEELING HALLOWEEN WE'VE SEEN IN A FEW YEARS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
BE MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
LOBES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT A MID-LEVEL LOW DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL
STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN US, BUT WHETHER IT BECOMES CUTOFF OR NOT
HAS CHANGED MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. THIS MORNING'S 00Z GFS
AND ECM RUN BOTH BRING THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GFS AGGRESSIVELY KICKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD
TUESDAY, WHILE THE ECM KEEPS IT IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD AN ADDITIONAL
DAY. AND THIS IS TECHNICALLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 18Z RUNS,
WHERE THE ECM ORPHANED THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE
GFS TRACKED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES. THIS IMPACTS THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST, AND
LOCALLY HOW MUCH RAIN WE MAY GET. THE SOONER AND CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD THE LOW DEVELOPS THE MORE LIKELY WE'LL HAVE
LOWER (IF ANY) RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO LIFT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTED TROPICAL
CYCLONE MELISSA INTO THE AREA IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST,
LATER, AND SLOWER. GIVEN AT LEAST SOME SOLUTIONS CALL FOR RAINFALL
BUT ALSO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, WENT WITH A 20% CHANCE
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL, AND LESS THAN 20% THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER A BIT, BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY DEEPER HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE AGAIN. WINDS AND SEAS SETTLE GOING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL
WATERS, WITH BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE GULF STREAM AGAIN TODAY AS SWELL FROM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT ARRIVES,
REACHING 5-7 FT NORTH OF THE CAPE LATE THIS MORNING, AND SOUTH OF
THE CAPE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SQUIRRELLY
TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, BECOMING NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS PEAK 5-8 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SETTLE TO 5-15 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER, GRADUALLY VEERING FROM
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT
FRIDAY, AND 2-4 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
BROAD DECK OF STRATUS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERALL
DISSIPATED, ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF BKN CEILINGS ARE STILL PRESENT
FOR THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS. TO THE NORTH, A BLANKET OF
CUMULUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR SITES WITH A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TAF
PERIOD, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF CIG DROPS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 03-09Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE PASSAGE,
BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. MVFR CEILINGS OCCUR DURING THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE, THEN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 73 50 70 / 20 0 0 0
MCO 57 73 51 71 / 20 0 0 0
MLB 60 75 53 71 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 62 76 53 73 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 55 72 48 71 / 20 0 0 0
SFB 56 74 50 71 / 20 0 0 0
ORL 57 72 52 71 / 20 0 0 0
FPR 62 76 53 73 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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