941
FXUS62 KMLB 291842
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
- BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS AGAIN AS
LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES AT THE BEACHES, AND WIND AND SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS INCREASE.
- FRIDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AND
50S FOR HALLOWEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AS THIS MORNING'S 10Z XMR SOUNDING FOUND A
PWAT OF JUST 0.8". A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST US. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY,
THOUGH CAMS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED POPS UP TO 20%, MAINLY NORTH OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAN WE TYPICALLY
SEE OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED, WE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PREVENT FOG
FORMATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL, WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE TREASURE COAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
LATE WEEK. THEN, YET ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 MPH, THURSDAY WILL SLACKEN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL EACH DAY, WITH PWATS
REMAINING WELL BELOW 1", IF NOT 0.5". COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A VERY FALL-LIKE HALLOWEEN, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
OCTOBER ARE TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 50S. RURAL
LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE THE UPPER 40S. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, AS NEARER TO AVERAGE
HIGHS AND LOWS RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
SPEED OF AND MOISTURE PRESENT NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. FOR
NOW, THE NBM POPS APPEARED TOO LOW, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AGREEMENT
IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT POPS RETURN MONDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE
BLENDED IN CONSALL TO INCREASE THE POPS FROM BASELINE NBM TO
20-40% MONDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SHOWER
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK, AS COMMUNITIES CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM
THE EXTREME RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO
TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
LEADING TO SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE REMAINING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC ZONES THIS EVENING.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
WINDS SLACKEN AND VEER ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY. LINGERING SEAS UP TO 7
FT IN THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY WILL BECOME 2-4 FT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THEN, MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY,
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DETERIORATING BOATING
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
BROAD DECK OF STRATUS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERALL
DISSIPATED, ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF BKN CEILINGS ARE STILL PRESENT
FOR THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS. TO THE NORTH, A BLANKET OF
CUMULUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR SITES WITH A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TAF
PERIOD, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF CIG DROPS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 03-09Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE PASSAGE,
BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. MVFR CEILINGS OCCUR DURING THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE, THEN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 73 50 70 / 20 0 0 0
MCO 57 73 51 71 / 20 0 0 0
MLB 60 75 53 71 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 62 76 53 73 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 55 72 48 71 / 20 0 0 0
SFB 56 74 50 71 / 20 0 0 0
ORL 57 72 52 71 / 20 0 0 0
FPR 62 76 53 73 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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