406
FXUS62 KMLB 300545
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
- BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS AGAIN AS
LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES AT THE BEACHES, AND WIND AND SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS INCREASE.
- FRIDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AND
50S FOR HALLOWEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AS THIS MORNING'S 10Z XMR SOUNDING FOUND A
PWAT OF JUST 0.8". A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST US. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY,
THOUGH CAMS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED POPS UP TO 20%, MAINLY NORTH OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAN WE TYPICALLY
SEE OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED, WE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PREVENT FOG
FORMATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL, WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE TREASURE COAST LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
LATE WEEK. THEN, YET ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 MPH, THURSDAY WILL SLACKEN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL EACH DAY, WITH PWATS
REMAINING WELL BELOW 1", IF NOT 0.5". COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR A VERY FALL-LIKE HALLOWEEN, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
OCTOBER ARE TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 50S. RURAL
LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE THE UPPER 40S. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, AS NEARER TO AVERAGE
HIGHS AND LOWS RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
SPEED OF AND MOISTURE PRESENT NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. FOR
NOW, THE NBM POPS APPEARED TOO LOW, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AGREEMENT
IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT POPS RETURN MONDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE
BLENDED IN CONSALL TO INCREASE THE POPS FROM BASELINE NBM TO
20-40% MONDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SHOWER
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK, AS COMMUNITIES CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM
THE EXTREME RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO
TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
LEADING TO SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE REMAINING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC ZONES THIS EVENING.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
WINDS SLACKEN AND VEER ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY. LINGERING SEAS UP TO 7
FT IN THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY WILL BECOME 2-4 FT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THEN, MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY,
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DETERIORATING BOATING
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
BRIEF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AROUND 12-14Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH THROUGH 08Z FOR
MCO,SFB, ISM, DAB, TIX, AND MLB WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER WNW BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTING
TO 15-20 KT. WNW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY AROUND 15Z,
WITH 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AROUND 00Z, WITH 5-10 KT FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 49 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 73 51 71 51 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 75 53 71 56 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 76 53 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 72 49 71 49 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 74 50 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 73 52 71 52 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 76 52 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WATSON
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