471
FXUS62 KMLB 301756
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY, WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
- COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVE IN TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. FRIDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AND 50S FOR HALLOWEEN.
- DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST LATE WEEK INTO MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA, AND SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT EXISTED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED, WITH JUST A BAND OF LOWER CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT MORE PREDOMINANT
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. THIS BREEZY
FLOW COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSPORT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FL
EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS QUITE LOW AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP
RAIN CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COOLER
TO SOMEWHAT CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S
FARTHER SOUTH. LEESBURG AND DAYTONA ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 49
DEGREES TONIGHT, AND IF THEY DO REACH THESE VALUES, IT WILL BE
THE FIRST TIME TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50 DEGREES AT THESE SITES
SINCE MARCH 23RD OF THIS YEAR!
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
WEEKEND, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW THOUGH ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY AND THEN WILL SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS MAX TEMPS
REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT. EVENING TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S/60S FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES AND THEN DROP TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR (EXCEPT MID 40S NORTH OF SANFORD) AND LOW TO
MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS THEN GRADUALLY
RISE TO THE 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT LIFTING
WARM FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT (AROUND
20 PERCENT), BUT MAY CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS MORE CERTAINTY IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN INCREASES.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS INTO
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CLOSED LOW OR TROUGH IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS
FLORIDA. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE GFS DEVELOPS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF/NORTHERN GULF COAST, SHIFTING IT EAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, WITH ECMWF SHOWING BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUING A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL CLIMB INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK UP TO 20-30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. NBM
GUIDANCE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THIS TIME
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY SEE RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES AS PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS BY SUNRISE, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUILDING SEAS UP TO 7-9 FEET OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING, AND THEN WILL
ONLY BE IN PLACE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR LINGERING SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SEAS UP TO 7
FEET. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY
VEER ONSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO DECREASE TO
2-4 FEET. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL RETURNING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS MAY THEN AGAIN DETERIORATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS DROP
BELOW 8-10 KNOTS, THEN NOT AS BREEZY TOMORROW. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THRU TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 49 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 52 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 54 72 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 53 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 49 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 50 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 52 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 53 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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