157
FXUS62 KMLB 302335
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
735 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY, WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
- COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
FRIDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AND
50S FOR HALLOWEEN.
- DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
AREA, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS EVENING, BECOMING 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON,
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID-50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WHILE
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST OF I-4 AND RURAL PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA COUNTY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 1". NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN VEER ONSHORE INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY FALL-LIKE HALLOWEEN NIGHT, AS EVENING TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 60S AND UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO NEAR
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK, AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WHAT
APPEARS MOST CERTAIN IS THAT A TROUGH OR LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING HOW THIS FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AND, THEREFORE, EXACTLY WHAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (20-30%), WITH A FEW STORMS, BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND NBM POPS (20% OR LESS) THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND AND MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THEIR DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
INTO TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, CAUSING
WINDS TO RELAX AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. UNTIL THEN, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES (SCA) REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 11 PM, DUE TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS AND
SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT, PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF STREAM. SCAS WILL
EXPIRE FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING, BUT CONTINUE FOR
THE GULF STREAM INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
10-15 KTS AREA-WIDE AND WILL VEER ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS UP TO 6 FT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME 2-3 FT INTO SATURDAY.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE EVOLUTION A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW, WHAT IS MORE CONFIDENT IS
THAT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AGAIN INTO MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR AS NW WINDS SETTLE TO 5-8 KT OVERNIGHT. SKC FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT NW WINDS 5-10 KT 15-23Z FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 49 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 52 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 54 72 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 53 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 49 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 50 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 52 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 53 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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