827
FXUS62 KMLB 310639
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
EVENING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S TO MID
50S FOR HALLOWEEN.
- DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST TODAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL
EXTEND AND SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN WINDS, WITH N/NW WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH PW VALUES FALLING TO 0.3-0.5 INCHES,
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD LOWEST FOR THIS DATE ACCORDING TO
THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR XMR. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION, AND EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY 8-10 DEGREES, WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, WITH VALUES DROPPING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 50S INTO
THIS EVENING FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-4, TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S INLAND
AND VOLUSIA COAST, AND 50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ACROSS BREVARD
COUNTY AND TREASURE COAST.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE
SURFACE SATURDAY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD, WITH A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
ALOFT DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD FL SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BUT MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES
CURRENTLY RISING TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT, MAINLY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THE MUCH COOLER/SOMEWHAT CHILLY START TO SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL BE
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
FLORIDA TO START EARLY MONDAY, BUT THIS LOW GETS PICKED UP AND
ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE LATEST ECMWF RUN, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LOW CUTTING OFF FROM
THIS FLOW AND LINGERING NEAR/JUST EAST OF FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE ALOFT DOES LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EITHER MOVING ACROSS OR FORMING JUST NORTHEAST OF FL,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW END
POPS (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR MONDAY, BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NBM/ECMWF WHICH SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING TUESDAY ONWARD. HIGHS FALL BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY (EXCEPT UPPER 70S TREASURE COAST),
AND THEN GRADUALLY RISE BACK TO THE LOW 80S BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO DECREASE
AND SLOWLY VEER TO THE N/NE BY SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10-15
KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO STEADILY DECREASE, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 2 PM. SMALL CRAFT WILL
STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. OTHERWISE, SEAS FALL TO 3-5 FEET TONIGHT
AND 2-4 FEET SATURDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
N/NE INTO SUNDAY, BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS STILL AROUND 2-4 FEET.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS OR
DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND SHIFT NORTHEAST
DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN N/NW WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRODUCING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FEET.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO
MONDAY UNTIL DRIER AIR BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR WITH SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS 5-8 KT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY EVENING (23-00Z).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 49 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 71 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 71 54 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 73 53 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 70 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 71 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 71 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 73 52 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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