473
FXUS62 KMLB 312320
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MOST AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TONIGHT...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ESP OVER THE INTERIOR, RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S INTERIOR AND LOW 50S METRO ORLANDO. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BUT AS LONG AS A LIGHT NW DRAINAGE FLOW CAN DEVELOP, COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S, EXCEPT
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 MARTIN COAST.
WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A LITTLE LESS WIND AND A LITTLE
WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD SAT NIGHT AND SUN OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUN AND ESP SUN NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING 20-30% AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH
INTERIOR BUT WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY SUN EVE/SUN NIGHT AREAWIDE.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH
AND LOW 80S SOUTH.
MON-FRI (MODIFIED)...BOTH 12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE CUT-OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO FLORIDA TO START MONDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
MOVING AND WEAKENING AS IT PULLS EAST OF FL, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THIS FLOW AND LINGERING NEAR/JUST WEST OF FL
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE ALOFT
DOES LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
EITHER MOVING ACROSS OR FORMING JUST NORTHEAST OF FL, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS
(AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR MONDAY THEN LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
NBM/ECMWF WHICH SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING TUESDAY ONWARD.
MAX TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY (EXCEPT UPPER 70S TREASURE COAST), AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO THE LOW 80S AREAWIDE BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WEEKEND...DECREASING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS TONIGHT AND SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2PM FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL KEEP A
CAUTION HEADLINE THERE INTO THIS EVENING FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE 3 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SAT AND 2-3 FT SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN BUT FOCUSED SUN NIGHT.
MON-WED...NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON 15-20 KNOTS
AND GRADUALLY VEER NE BY WED. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF A NORTH WIND
COMPONENT WILL PRODUCE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE GULF STREAM AND CHOPPY SEAS BOTH
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE. INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD MODIFY QUICKLY AS FLOW TURNS NE BY WED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH NE WINDS PICKING UP AFTER 16Z AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 50 73 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 51 76 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 54 76 61 79 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 53 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 48 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 20
SFB 49 76 57 79 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 51 76 58 78 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 53 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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