172
FXUS62 KMLB 011720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
A GRADUAL WARM-UP EXPECTED, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT AREA BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND INTO FLORIDA TODAY, WITH LIGHTER N/NE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5-10
MPH FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.6 INCHES, WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR. AFTER A SLIGHTLY CHILLY START AROUND DAYBREAK WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S-MID 50S, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST INTO TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LIFTS N/NE AS A CUT-OFF
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH FLORIDA
INTO MONDAY. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, WHICH DRAGS A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION INTO MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW ALOFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW END RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT
THROUGH THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY, WITH VALUES
A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. THEN WITH THE
FRONT, HIGHS FALL BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NEAR TO NORTH OF
ORLANDO AND MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...CUT-OFF LOW ALOFT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
WEAKENS INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT GFS LINGERS THIS LOW A LITTLE LONGER JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TUESDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
FEATURE MAY CONTINUE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WATERS THAT
CAN PUSH ONSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS REGARDING THIS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FORECAST MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOW 80S MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST, WITH WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, GENERALLY
OUT OF THE N/NE, BUT DIRECTIONS MAY BE MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESIDE AROUND 2-4 FEET TODAY AND FALL TO 2-3 FEET SUNDAY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TAKE
FORM OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA/EAST FLORIDA COAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY AND MAY SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A WEAKER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING. A FRESH NW
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AS WINDS VEER TO THE N/NE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND SPEED ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, BUT MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE LOW
PRESSURE IS FROM THE EAST COAST OF FL. GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH NE WINDS DECREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW, WITH
SEAS 4-6 FEET MONDAY, AND INCREASING TO 5-7 FEET TUESDAY AND THEN
FALLING TO 4-6 FEET AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 16Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 76 59 72 / 0 10 30 30
MCO 56 79 60 74 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 59 78 62 76 / 0 10 20 20
VRB 58 79 62 78 / 0 20 20 20
LEE 53 78 57 72 / 0 10 20 30
SFB 55 78 59 73 / 0 10 20 30
ORL 56 78 60 73 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 58 80 62 78 / 0 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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