006
FXUS62 KMLB 011940
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION.
- SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY/TUESDAY THEN WARMING TREND THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SUN-MON...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY
SUN APPROACHES THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA
MON. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST WHICH WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
MON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE
HOLDING AT 20-30 PERCENT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
CLEANLY THROUGH WITH A DOSE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. A TYPICAL WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THEN FALLING BACK MON
INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S SOUTH.
TUE-SAT...RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF BREEZY/GUSTY N/NE
WINDS ESP TUE ALONG THE COAST. WE ARE ENTERING ANOTHER WEEK OF
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SO SOME ADDITIONAL BEACH
EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS BY MIDWEEK
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE THOUGH REMAINING ONSHORE. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST BUT HAVE DRAWN A SILENT 10 POP FOR
COASTAL AREAS TUE-WED FOR ATLC SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WED-THU
AND INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR FRI-SAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SUN...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, EXPANDING TO
ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
MON-THU...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE SE
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FRESH NW WINDS NEAR 20
KNOTS MON VEERING N/NE TUE RESULTING IN DETERIORATING BOATING
CONDITIONS. GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX A BIT WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS SUPPORTING 10-15 KNOTS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD MON, PEAK
AT 8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM TUE-TUE NIGHT AND FINALLY FALL BELOW 7
FT WED NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
ALL THE WATERS STARTING SOMETIME MONDAY THROUGH TUE, LINGERING
OFFSHORE INTO WED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 16Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 76 59 72 / 0 10 30 30
MCO 56 79 60 74 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 59 78 62 76 / 0 10 20 20
VRB 58 79 62 78 / 0 20 20 20
LEE 53 78 57 72 / 0 10 20 30
SFB 55 78 59 73 / 0 10 20 30
ORL 56 78 60 73 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 58 80 62 78 / 0 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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