109
FXUS62 KMLB 021130
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES UP TO 20-30 PERCENT FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
TODAY-MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFT
N/NE AS A CUT-OFF LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THAT
WILL DRAG A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AROUND 5-10 MPH, GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NE. WHILE SOME MOISTENING OF
THE AIRMASS WILL OCCUR TODAY, PW VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AN
INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND APPROACHING NW OF I-4 LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACHING ROBUST CUT-OFF LOW AND A CONTINUED MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD HELP INDUCE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE PASSING FRONT. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES STILL
REMAIN LOW AROUND 20-30%. ADDITIONALLY, HREF AND GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ARE BASICALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER LAND,
SO DESPITE THE SHEAR AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW
ALOFT, LIGHTNING IS NOT FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TODAY. MAX TEMPS THEN FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM
OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S STILL FORECAST ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY/TREASURE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND THEN AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN
REGARDS TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HAVE CUT-OFF LOW BEING ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE GFS HAS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW THAT
BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND LINGERS ACROSS THE GULF AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10-
15 MPH ON TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE AS THEY VEER AND REMAIN MOSTLY
ONSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO LARGELY PREVAIL, BUT GFS DOES INDICATE SOME PERIODS OF
MOSTLY ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO THE LOW 80S MID
TO LATE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY LOW TO MID 80S INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 50S CONTINUING
NORTHWEST OF I-4 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NE, WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET. WINDS THEN BEGIN TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE W/NW TONIGHT, NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO 10-15
KNOTS AS WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE WATERS, WITH
SEAS LINGERING AROUND 2-3 FEET. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAPE
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE N/NW AROUND 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND UP
TO 5-7 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. A FRESH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
N/NE INTO TUESDAY CONTINUING TO BUILD SEAS TO 6-8 FEET, BUT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MIDWEEK OUT OF THE NE AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 4-6 FEET
WEDNESDAY AND 3-4 FEET ON THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
INTO MONDAY WITH THE PASSING FRONT, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-NE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-7 KT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT (00Z MONDAY). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MAINLY MOVING ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND
LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH STARTING AT
21Z FROM VRB- SUA, AND 23Z AT LEE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SO HAVE ADDED VCSH
STARTING AT 00Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST, AND
STARTING AT 03Z FOR TIX/MLB. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 12Z ON MONDAY. SO
HAVE TAKEN VCSH OUT STARTING AT 12Z ON MONDAY AT MCO AND HAVE NE
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THAT TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 59 73 57 / 10 30 20 10
MCO 79 61 75 56 / 10 20 10 0
MLB 79 63 77 60 / 10 20 20 0
VRB 80 64 79 60 / 10 20 20 0
LEE 78 58 73 53 / 20 20 10 10
SFB 79 59 75 55 / 10 20 20 10
ORL 79 61 74 56 / 10 20 10 0
FPR 81 64 79 60 / 20 20 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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