617
FXUS62 KMLB 022026
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
326 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING TREASURE COAST COUNTIES,
OTHERWISE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS QUITE LOW ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT/MONDAY.
- INCREASING NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
PRODUCE DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS.
- WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
THRU MON...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE EASTWARD AND ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING/FILLING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THAT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS
VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS (MARTIN/ST LUCIE) THIS EVENING WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY PERCOLATE UP FROM SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA MON MORNING WITH NW TO N
WIND FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S BUT REACHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR
WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15 MPH.
TUE-SUN...12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WEAKENS
THROUGH MID WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS KICKED
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS. THIS
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (20-30%) ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FRI. BREEZY NE WINDS TUE (15-20 MPH) WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND WHILE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE
WEEK, THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE CLOSER TO 10-14 MPH. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, THOUGH HAVE DRAWN A SILENT 10
PERCENT POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WED-THU FOR ANY
ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS OFF THE ATLC.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY INTO THE LOW 80S WED-FRI WITH MID 80S INTERIOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW-N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. HAVE RAISED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS
STARTING AT 10 AM MONDAY, EXPANDING TO OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST
WATERS AT 2 PM MONDAY. INCLUDED NEARSHORE VOLUSIA SINCE WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AS THEY VEER N/NE MON NIGHT BUT
SEAS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH 7 FT THERE. ON THE OTHER HAND, OVER
THE GULF STREAM, SEAS WILL BUILD 7-8 FT MON NIGHT/TUE. CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KNOTS AND UP TO 6 FEET) SHOULD SUFFICE FOR
NEARSHORE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK OUT OF THE ENE AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM 4-5 FEET
WEDNESDAY, REACHING 2-3 FEET FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENE WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VCSH POSSIBLE FROM VRB
SOUTHWARD AFTER 21Z, CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS DUE TO DECREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS VEER TO OUT OF THE NW AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
NNE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 73 57 76 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 61 76 56 78 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 64 76 61 78 / 10 10 0 10
VRB 63 78 61 79 / 10 10 0 10
LEE 56 74 51 77 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 59 75 54 78 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 61 75 56 78 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 63 79 61 79 / 10 10 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ550-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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