306
FXUS62 KMLB 030545
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1245 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING TREASURE COAST COUNTIES,
OTHERWISE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS QUITE LOW ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT/MONDAY.
- INCREASING NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
PRODUCE DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS.
- WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
THRU MON...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE EASTWARD AND ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING/FILLING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THAT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS
VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS (MARTIN/ST LUCIE) THIS EVENING WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY PERCOLATE UP FROM SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA MON MORNING WITH NW TO N
WIND FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S BUT REACHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR
WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15 MPH.
TUE-SUN...12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WEAKENS
THROUGH MID WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS KICKED
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS. THIS
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (20-30%) ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FRI. BREEZY NE WINDS TUE (15-20 MPH) WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND WHILE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE
WEEK, THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE CLOSER TO 10-14 MPH. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, THOUGH HAVE DRAWN A SILENT 10
PERCENT POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WED-THU FOR ANY
ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS OFF THE ATLC.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY INTO THE LOW 80S WED-FRI WITH MID 80S INTERIOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW-N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. HAVE RAISED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS
STARTING AT 10 AM MONDAY, EXPANDING TO OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST
WATERS AT 2 PM MONDAY. INCLUDED NEARSHORE VOLUSIA SINCE WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AS THEY VEER N/NE MON NIGHT BUT
SEAS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH 7 FT THERE. ON THE OTHER HAND, OVER
THE GULF STREAM, SEAS WILL BUILD 7-8 FT MON NIGHT/TUE. CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KNOTS AND UP TO 6 FEET) SHOULD SUFFICE FOR
NEARSHORE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK OUT OF THE ENE AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM 4-5 FEET
WEDNESDAY, REACHING 2-3 FEET FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AROUND 12Z
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR FPR- SUA
THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THEN MOSTLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY
MID MORNING BEFORE VEERING N/NNE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY (15-20 KT) ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE AROUND 00Z TUESDAY, WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
KT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 7-10 KT ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 56 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 76 56 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 76 61 79 67 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 77 61 80 67 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 74 51 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 75 53 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 78 61 80 66 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WATSON
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