015
FXUS62 KMLB 031720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY, PRODUCING POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING
CONDITIONS
- DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINA COAST. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SUB-1" PW APPROACHING LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES, AND BY LATE TONIGHT, THIS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THROUGH THE DAY, A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP (10-15 MPH), GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST.
AS A RESULT, A SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT AND MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT AREA BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER ENTER THE OCEAN ALONE!
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH COOLER, DRIER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES REALLY COOL
OFF, SINKING INTO THE 50S/60S AREAWIDE. A FEW SPOTS IN RURAL
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES MAY (BRIEFLY) APPROACH THE UPPER
40S BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
HERE AT HOME. NORTH WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY, REMAINING BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT AROUND 850MB AND ABOVE 350MB TO KEEP SKY CONDITIONS PARTLY
CLOUDY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW 80S) WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS DECREASE
WEDNESDAY, TURNING EASTERLY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AT THE BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY, SO
ENTERING THE WATER WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD AS FAST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY TURNS WESTERLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EAST COAST BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL
MOISTURE DEEPENS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE WEEK BUT FORCING REMAINS
WEAK. THIS FORECAST BRINGS MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES BACK ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. BRIEFLY DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES APPROACH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE QPF IS NEAR ENSEMBLE MEANS OF
0.25" OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE GFS BEING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION (0.75-1.00" ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST). IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAIN CHANCES NUDGED UPWARD
A BIT ON SUNDAY, BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THAT POINT IN TIME.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR THE NBM AND MEDIUM-RANGE CONSENSUS, SATURDAY MAY
LEAN A TOUCH WARMER TOWARD THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUILDING SEAS
AND PRODUCING POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. 15-20 KT WINDS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS RESPOND, BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE AND UP
TO 5-7 FT OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS FOR THE VOLUSIA
WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, EXPANDING
TO THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR
SOME TIME TUESDAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST
WATERS.
WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY, DECREASING TO 10-14 KT FROM THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN 2-4 FT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS.
BREEZY AND GUSTY NNE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS, PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAIN IS
NOT FORECAST NEAR ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 77 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 56 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 63 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 63 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 52 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 55 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 56 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 63 79 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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