283
FXUS62 KMLB 040109
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
809 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
- NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, MAINTAINING POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH A WARM WEEKEND. THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO COOL THINGS DOWN CONSIDERABLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SOUTH OF
ORLANDO FRI, ESPECIALLY TREASURE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
TONIGHT...CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. IN FACT, THIS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEK. VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE TO NE, THOUGH, WILL KEEP
COASTAL SECTIONS MILDER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE CAROLINA COAST TUE THEN
CONTINUES SEAWARD WED WITH ITS TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SETTLING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. IN RESPONSE, WINDS VEER NE AND REMAIN
BREEZY/GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS BECOME EAST WED AND DECREASE
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL PANCAKE
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 850MB BUT NO RAIN IS FORECAST.
MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE FOR EARLY NOV RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
AT THE BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS TUESDAY, SO
ENTERING THE WATER WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THU-MON...12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FL/STRAITS AS UPPER TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BY
SO THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (20%) WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI. WIND FLOW DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FRI THEN OFFSHORE (WEST) COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL SEND
MAX TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL REACHING THE MID 80S MOST AREAS. HAVE KEPT
A SILENT 10 POP FOR SUNDAY BUT THESE MAY BE INCREASED TO SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP CLEANLY THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT/
EARLY MON AND SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GUSTY NW-N WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED NORTHWARD, THUS HAVE ENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE VOLUSIA WATERS AND NEAR SHORE BREVARD
WATERS. GOING WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND
NEAR SHORE BREVARD AS SEAS STILL BUILDING TO 4-6 FT AND WINDS
15-20 KTS ACROSS THESE LEGS. THE NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA MARINE LEG
SHOWS OBSERVATIONS OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
3-5 FT. KEEP THE SCA FOR OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD, AND NEAR SHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS AS NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS AND GUSTY HERE WITH SEAS 5-7 FT.
PREVIOUS...ISSUED AT 240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH THE
CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOSING MOMENTUM AS IT
APPROACHES SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED BY THIS MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER NE BY TUE WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 7 FT IN THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT/TUE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE NEAR 10 KNOTS
NORTH AND 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. NE-ENE FLOW THU VEERS SE FRI WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE SAT, TURNING ONSHORE IN A 10 KT SEA BREEZE BEAR THE
COAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE 3-5 FT WED, 2-4 FT THU AND 2-3
FT FRI-SAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
CONTINUED VFR THRU THE PERIOD. BREEZY/GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS INTERIOR AND AROUND 10 KTS
ALONG THE COAST. NE WINDS ON TUE INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. WILL SEE SOME MARINE
STRATOCU MOVE ONTO THE COAST TUE AND POINTS INLAND DURING THE
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 77 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 56 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 63 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 63 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 52 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 55 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 56 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 63 79 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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