707
FXUS62 KMLB 041122
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
622 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
- NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET
WILL PRODUCE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS
TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONG DISCOURAGED!
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEN A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
OFF THE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES, EXPANDING ACROSS FLORIDA, WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS TO PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NORTH WINDS VEER NORTHEAST BY MID-MORNING, REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE TODAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND LOW 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
AT THE BEACHES, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
WEDNESDAY... FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FLORIDA AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD. LOCALLY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS THE DRIER AIRMASS
OVERHEAD PERSISTS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND DESPITE THE DRIER AIR,
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS TO PRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AREA BEACHES, SO
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THURSDAY-MONDAY... BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THURSDAY AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST OF THE EASTERN US, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON THURSDAY
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOCALLY, LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
ON MONDAY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER, FORCING REMAINS WEAK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST, BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THE NBM REMAINS THE DRIEST SOLUTION (WITH
NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY), SO HAVE BLENDED IN
SOME CONSALL TO BRING IN A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL TO KISSIMMEE SOUTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE TO NUDGE
NORTHWARD IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE MODELS BECOME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 70 TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY... POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS 4-5 FEET ACROSS ALL THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS (EXCEPT UP TO 6
FEET IN THE NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS), AND UP TO 7 FEET IN
THE OFFSHORE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST
WATERS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS DECREASING GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5FT ON WEDNESDAY, 2-4FT ON
THURSDAY, AND 2-3FT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST ON FRIDAY FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MARINE STRATOCU WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THRU THE DAY, PUSHING FARTHER INLAND AFTER
17Z. HREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY 20% OR LESS
WITH SCT/BKN 030-040 ANTICIPATED. NE WINDS INCREASE AFTER 14Z,
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT (ESP. AT THE COAST), THEN
DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER 23Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 63 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 79 63 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 68 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 79 67 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 79 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 79 61 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 79 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 79 67 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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