136
FXUS62 KMLB 182342
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
642 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- PATCHY/AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE OUR NOTABLE HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO NUDGE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS IN CONTROL.
- OUTDOOR PLANS WILL BE GREETED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MOST
LOCALES WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION AND HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE WORDING TO "AREAS OF FOG" ACROSS THIS
REGION, WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY, WITH VISIBILITIES OF
A HALF MILE OR LESS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN
IF ENCOUNTERING ANY LIMITED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, WITH NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... A THIN LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PRODUCED A
DECK OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR
OKEECHOBEE. CAMS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS.
HOWEVER, A WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED, AND ITS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
LIMIT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM MOVING TOO FAR INLAND. OUTSIDE OF
AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER BRUSHING THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST, MOST
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT, CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG. LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE MILE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS. IF ENCOUNTERING FOG
ON ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SLOW DOWN,
USE LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF
YOU. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. THE ATTACHED SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., BUT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
LOCALLY WILL KEEP IT NORTH OF FLORIDA. CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THERE ARE NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON,
REACHING THE LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
FRIDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED LOCALLY AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE
THEN FLATTENS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. A LIMITED MOISTURE COLUMN KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW FOR ANY
RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY, MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WARM A FEW
DEGREES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT,
BECOMING REINFORCED BY A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING 3-
4 FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY, BECOMING WIDELY 1-2
FT BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
GENERALLY VARIABLE, EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SEA BREEZE INCREASING WINDS
OUT OF THE NE TO 7-8 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH HREF GUIDANCE SHOWING
GREATEST PROBABILITIES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KMCO THROUGH THE I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD THROUGH INLAND BREVARD AND PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. ANY FOG WILL PRODUCE TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN SPOTS WHERE
DENSE FOG IS ABLE TO FORM. HAVE INCLUDED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT, WITH GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL BETWEEN
10-13Z. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AROUND 14Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
MODIFIED PREVIOUS... OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SEASONABLY DEEP
MIXING (4+ KFT) SHOULD TAP INTO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ALONG THE
I-4 CORRIDOR, RH MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 40-45% WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZES BECOMING NE LESS THAN 10
MPH. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY ARE FORECAST EACH
NIGHT, SO SMOKE FROM ANY FIRES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WITH
PATCHY FOG.
ALTHOUGH SENSITIVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MID WEEK, RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN ALL
AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 61 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 81 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 58 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 61 81 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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