899
FXUS62 KMLB 190545
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1245 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
- HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER DRY AND WARM
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE MORE THAN A
WEEK AWAY, PERHAPS ARRIVING AROUND OR JUST AFTER THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
THIS MORNING, FLORIDA RESIDES ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FROM THERE, A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO HUDSON
BAY. A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW SITS OVER SAN DIEGO, AND ADDITIONAL JET
STREAM ENERGY IS SET TO MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THIS WILL ENSURE THAT THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE EJECTS
A SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, FORCING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE
MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE HEIGHTS TO DIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING IS SET TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER
FLORIDA AS A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES BEGINS TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE
PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 6-7 DAYS IS
VERY GOOD AS MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LOW.
AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY SUNDAY, A WEAKENING
FRONT APPROACHES NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE DISSIPATING NEARBY ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN NOSES OFF THE EAST
COAST BY NEXT TUESDAY, DELIVERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TO
THE STATE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF +1 TO +3 DEG C ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS,
AND ANY DEEPER MOISTURE IS SET TO REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF
SIGNALS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST FEATURE, EMBEDDED IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET, EXITS THE SONORAN DESERT BY MONDAY. IT SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF FLORIDA AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND FEATURE, MOVING
FROM THE NE PACIFIC ON MONDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
THANKSGIVING DAY, LOOKS STRONGER. THIS DISTURBANCE HOLDS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A BONA FIDE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND NEXT FRIDAY
(28TH).
STILL, ANY SORT OF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
IN DURATION AS ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY ENTERS THE WEST BY
MONTH'S END, MOST LIKELY FORCING HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA
FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER. EXTENDED-RANGE MODELS STILL
FAVOR INCREASING COLD WEATHER RISKS AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO
DECEMBER.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY - SATURDAY...
A VERY TRANQUIL FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. WE
ANTICIPATE NEARLY RINSE-AND-REPEAT CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND ABOVE-NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. PATCHY FOG IS STILL EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY
LIGHT WINDS, ALLOWING FOR HIGH MORNING RH VALUES. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT; THIS WILL BE A HAZARD TO KEEP AN EYE ON
EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY - NEXT WEEK...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TEASES THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. AHEAD OF IT, WESTERLY WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WE STILL ANTICIPATE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY
RETURNS. EACH DAY, EXPECT UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BEACHSIDE TO LOW/MID
80S ELSEWHERE.
MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE, WE SEE NO REASON QUITE YET
TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO OUR NORTHWEST AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY MAY SEND A FRONT
INTO N FLORIDA. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE LESSENS AS A SECOND
(STRONGER) DISTURBANCE IS DUE TO ARRIVE OVER THE MIDWEST AROUND
THANKSGIVING. AT THIS TIME, CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE FOR THE HOLIDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BY THEN AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL WATERS. A LARGE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, DELIVERING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TURNING EASTERLY UP TO 10 KT ALONG
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE FORMS, WINDS VEER
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY TURNING WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT, ALL LESS THAN 12
KT. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY, LESSENING TO 1-2 FT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL
INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE NE 7-8 KNOTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY
FOG FORMATION THROUGH SUNRISE. 00Z HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATEST
PROBABILITIES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KMCO THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH INLAND BREVARD AND PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. ANY FOG WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN SPOTS WHERE DENSE FOG
IS ABLE TO FORM. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT FOG-PRONE TERMINALS
FPR AND VRB. HAVE INCLUDED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL BETWEEN 10-13Z. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
TODAY AND THURSDAY, RH VALUES NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4 DIP TO AROUND
40% IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE FIRE-SENSITIVE RH READINGS THEN INCREASE
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MORE MOISTURE RETURNS. LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 10 MPH) ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG THAT MIXES WITH SMOKE FROM
ONGOING FIRES MAY WORSEN VISIBILITY IN THEIR VICINITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 61 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 81 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 82 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 82 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 82 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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