455
FXUS62 KMLB 200609
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
109 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS, AND INSTANCES
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT AREA BEACHES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE THIS EVENING INCLUDES ADDING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN HINTING AT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITHIN
THESE AREAS, SO DECIDED TO ADD IT IN WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A FAIR AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AROUND LUNCHTIME. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING A BLUE SKY DAY. 5-10
MPH ONSHORE WINDS WILL TURN CALM TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS IN PLAY OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR THE CAPE
TO LAKE KISSIMMEE, INCLUDING PLACES LIKE TITUSVILLE, MELBOURNE,
AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TREASURE COAST. LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, ALSO, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS AHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS THE H5 RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE AND PW UNDER 1" WILL
KEEP THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MIX FRIDAY AS THE
PROFILE MOISTENS AROUND 250-300MB. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO CONTINUE, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (LOW/MID 80S) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE PRESENCE OF
CALM WINDS AND NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
SUNDAY-NEXT WEEK...A WEAKENED COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN ONSHORE WITH THE
EAST COAST BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT RIDGING
OVER FLORIDA KEEPS THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WELL NORTH. A FEW MODEL
RUNS SHOW COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. THE ANTICIPATION IS FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY (LOWS IN THE 60S, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S). A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, THOUGH
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MUDDIED AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GOES
BEFORE STALLING. REGARDLESS, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, SO
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY SIGNS OF AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TURN ONSHORE, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS VEER NNW SUNDAY, THEN ONSHORE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z, BUT CHANCES FOR VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER AT ANY
PARTICULAR ECFL AIRPORT ARE LOW (LESS THAN 20%) BASED ON HREF
GUIDANCE. 00Z HREF LOWERED MVFR VIS CHANCES FROM KTIX-KFPR TO
AROUND 10%, DOWN 10-30% IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE, BUT HAVE SEEN SOME
MIFG DEVELOP HERE SO OPTED TO CONTINUE 6M BR REDUCTION IN THOSE
TAFS. 00Z HREF ALSO INTRODUCED A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR VIS SOUTH OF
KLEE AND LAMP GUIDANCE PERIODICALLY INDICATED MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS,
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT THE LATEST. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS GOING HARD ON FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC AT
THIS TIME (A COMMON THEME THE LAST COUPLE DAYS). WILL NEED A MODEL
CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 60 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 63 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 81 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 83 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...HALEY
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