179
FXUS62 KMLB 200701
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
201 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY-SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL
WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
PRECIP WATER VALUES 1" OR LESS WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
FLOW SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST, UP TO 10 MPH. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH (CIRRUS) CLOUDS STREAMING E TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
MOISTENING IN THE 250-300MB LAYER. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCRAPS OF LOWER
LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S COAST AND LOW-MID 80S INTERIOR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING UNDER
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FULL RECOVERY OF RH.
SUN-THU...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH, LITTLE
COOLING AND NO RAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLC RESULTING IN A QUICK VEERING OF WIND FLOW,
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TUE AND SOUTH SOUTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC TUE-WED BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY BUT GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
QUICKLY IT APPROACHES AND WHERE IT INITIALLY STALLS. AT THIS
POINT, IT IS LOOKING LIKE A MILD TO WARM THANKSGIVING WITH SOME
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON UP TO 10
KNOTS, ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NW FLOW VEERING N/NE. WINDS VEER E/NE MON
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH SAT THEN UP
TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STEAM SUN-MON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z, BUT CHANCES FOR VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER AT ANY
PARTICULAR ECFL AIRPORT ARE LOW (LESS THAN 20%) BASED ON HREF
GUIDANCE. 00Z HREF LOWERED MVFR VIS CHANCES FROM KTIX-KFPR TO
AROUND 10%, DOWN 10-30% IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE, BUT HAVE SEEN SOME
MIFG DEVELOP HERE SO OPTED TO CONTINUE 6M BR REDUCTION IN THOSE
TAFS. 00Z HREF ALSO INTRODUCED A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR VIS SOUTH OF
KLEE AND LAMP GUIDANCE PERIODICALLY INDICATED MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS,
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT THE LATEST. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS GOING HARD ON FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC AT
THIS TIME (A COMMON THEME THE LAST COUPLE DAYS). WILL NEED A MODEL
CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 60 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 63 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 81 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 83 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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