932
FXUS62 KMLB 201141
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
641 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY-SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL
WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
PRECIP WATER VALUES 1" OR LESS WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
FLOW SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST, UP TO 10 MPH. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH (CIRRUS) CLOUDS STREAMING E TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
MOISTENING IN THE 250-300MB LAYER. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCRAPS OF LOWER
LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S COAST AND LOW-MID 80S INTERIOR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING UNDER
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FULL RECOVERY OF RH.
SUN-THU...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH, LITTLE
COOLING AND NO RAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLC RESULTING IN A QUICK VEERING OF WIND FLOW,
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TUE AND SOUTH SOUTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC TUE-WED BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY BUT GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
QUICKLY IT APPROACHES AND WHERE IT INITIALLY STALLS. AT THIS
POINT, IT IS LOOKING LIKE A MILD TO WARM THANKSGIVING WITH SOME
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON UP TO 10
KNOTS, ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NW FLOW VEERING N/NE. WINDS VEER E/NE MON
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH SAT THEN UP
TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STEAM SUN-MON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
CONTINUING TO SEE SOME MIFG ACROSS THE AREA AND HINTS OF FOG WEST
OF THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IMPACTS TO
ECFL TERMINALS HAS BEEN MINIMAL IF ANY, AND THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG WILL CLOSE BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING AS LIGHT WINDS VEER FROM
NW TO E THROUGH THE DAY, THEN BECOME LIGHT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ARE MORE FAVORABLE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HI-RES MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH VIS REDUCTIONS (50-80% CHANCE FOR LIFR), BUT
MOS/LAMP GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING MUCH BETTER THE LAST
SEVERAL MORNINGS, ARE SHOWING ONLY LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR
MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP INTRODUCED 6SM BR
INTO ALL ECFL TAFS STARTING 06Z-08Z, BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING
MORE UNTIL MOS/LAMP INDICATES OTHERWISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 60 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 63 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 81 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 83 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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