719
FXUS62 KMLB 201731
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1231 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WITH SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY-SAT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL
WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
PRECIP WATER VALUES 1" OR LESS WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
FLOW SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST, UP TO 10 MPH. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH (CIRRUS) CLOUDS STREAMING E TO SE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
MOISTENING IN THE 250-300MB LAYER. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCRAPS OF LOWER
LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S COAST AND LOW-MID 80S INTERIOR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING UNDER
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FULL RECOVERY OF RH.
SUN-THU...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH, LITTLE
COOLING AND NO RAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLC RESULTING IN A QUICK VEERING OF WIND FLOW,
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TUE AND SOUTH SOUTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC TUE-WED BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY BUT GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
QUICKLY IT APPROACHES AND WHERE IT INITIALLY STALLS. AT THIS
POINT, IT IS LOOKING LIKE A MILD TO WARM THANKSGIVING WITH SOME
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON UP TO 10
KNOTS, ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NW FLOW VEERING N/NE. WINDS VEER E/NE MON
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH SAT THEN UP
TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STEAM SUN-MON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
AFTERNOON LAV GUIDANCE LENDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO FG CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED
PREVAILING MVFR VIS FOR ALL BUT THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS BY
7-9Z, WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IT'S POSSIBLE LIFR
VIS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THE TREASURE COAST APPEARS THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. HOWEVER, HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING 6SM AT
THOSE TERMINALS, GIVEN THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FG/MIFG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FG WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH
FUTURE UPDATES, AS IT IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. WHILE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TYPICALLY SUPPORT FG, THERE WAS VERY LITTLE OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS
LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 59 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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