363
FXUS62 KMLB 201902
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
202 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT
LOCAL AREA BEACHES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLEASANT,
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND WEST OF
DAYTONA BEACH AND ALSO ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
BREEZE DEVELOPING AT THE COAST. THIS EVENING, TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
INTO THE 60S, REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS PRESENT AND RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG (AT MINIMUM) IS FORECAST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN A BIT OVERDONE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH REGARD TO
FOG POTENTIAL, THOUGH LAV GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LITTLE GREATER
POSSIBILITY OF AREAWIDE FOG TONIGHT. KEEP THIS IN MIND BEFORE
HEADING OUT THE DOOR ON FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A FEW MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY, DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE ABOVE 300MB. A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FRIDAY TURNS ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
THEN VEERS WESTERLY ON SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY VEERING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS
INDICATED BY A FEW MODELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SFC-800MB
LAYER MOISTENS A BIT. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA; HOWEVER, MENTIONABLE ACCUMULATION WAS KEPT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. MONDAY MAY END UP A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S) BUT THE IMPACT OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUR NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK,
PERHAPS AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE
TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT'S APPROACH. FOR NOW, THE HOLIDAY LOOKS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH OF I-4)
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN ONSHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY VEERING WESTERLY BY SATURDAY (LESS
THAN 10 KT). ON SUNDAY, A WEAKENED FRONT ARRIVES AND GRADUALLY
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS VEER N/NE SUNDAY AND E/NE
MONDAY (8-12 KT). SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN 2-4 FT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
AFTERNOON LAV GUIDANCE LENDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO FG CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED
PREVAILING MVFR VIS FOR ALL BUT THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS BY
7-9Z, WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IT'S POSSIBLE LIFR
VIS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THE TREASURE COAST APPEARS THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. HOWEVER, HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING 6SM AT
THOSE TERMINALS, GIVEN THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FG/MIFG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FG WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH
FUTURE UPDATES, AS IT IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. WHILE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TYPICALLY SUPPORT FG, THERE WAS VERY LITTLE OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS
LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 59 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...LEAHY
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